Calling for support for the Yemeni government, an American center said: Can Trump completely eliminate the Houthis in Yemen?

A US think tank called on the Trump administration to prioritize strengthening the internationally recognized Yemeni government militarily and economically, stressing that while military action may weaken the Houthi rebels in the short term, truly weakening and ultimately eliminating the group requires the Presidential Council to govern effectively and restore its legitimacy.

The Atlantic Council noted in an analytical report that Trump says his administration will ensure the complete elimination of the Houthis in Yemen, and he is bolstering his military might to prove it. Trump spent the first months of his second term escalating US military strikes against the Houthis in response to their attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea.

The analysis , prepared by Emily Milliken and translated by Yemen Youth Net, stated that the renewed US military campaign has inflicted significant damage so far, with at least 57 people killed, including Houthi militants and Yemeni civilians. The campaign has also targeted weapons depots, drones, and missile storage facilities, in an attempt to weaken the Houthis' ability to strike trade routes in the Red Sea.

He added, "With the recent successive losses of leadership from other Iranian proxies, the Houthis' demise may seem a foregone conclusion. However, this assumption underestimates the Houthis' resilience, strategic adaptability, and deep-rooted influence in Yemen."

A more nuanced approach is required.

The report explained that the challenges of targeting the Houthi rebels require the Trump administration to recognize that a purely military approach will not achieve Washington's goal of "complete eradication."

Limited field intelligence in Yemen is likely to hinder the United States' ability to track the Houthis. This reality was repeated early last year when the United States struggled to assess the success of its operations and the group's full arsenal due to a lack of intelligence. Without a reliable presence or network of informants, targeting such a well-hidden leader would be difficult.

The center said that countering Houthi messaging about the military campaign also requires a nuanced approach: The Houthi rebels have exploited the damage to vital infrastructure and civilian casualties caused by airstrikes for their own propaganda.

Finally, to prevent the Houthis from resurging, the United States will have to cut off the group's supply sources, particularly from its international partners. Efforts to cut off arms supplies from Tehran, the Houthis' main backer, have been marked by vacillation.

Due to factors such as shifting regional priorities and a desire to avoid escalation with Iran, the US Navy's efforts to seize Iranian arms shipments bound for the group have fluctuated in recent years.

At the same time, Iran's efforts to evade detection through methods such as the use of camouflage boats, the transportation of weapons at sea, and the disguise of shipments as fishing boats or concealment on civilian cargo ships make interception difficult. In fact, only 20 Iranian smuggling vessels are estimated to have been intercepted between 2015 and 2024.

Meanwhile, the Houthis have announced several worrying new technologies that appear to be at least partially of Iranian origin, including a missile they claim can reach hypersonic speeds and a number of attack drones.

To sustainably interrupt Iranian shipments, the United States will need to increase its naval patrols in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, while simultaneously working with its Gulf allies to choke off smuggling routes and equip the Yemeni Coast Guard with advanced radar technology and patrol boats that will allow them to be more effective in the long term.

The evolving scene

Although the United States has been able to cut off Iran's shipments to the rebel group, the Houthis are seeking to diversify their partners beyond Iran and its deteriorating network of allies and proxies in the region, the report said.

For example, reports from August indicate that Russian military intelligence officers are now operating in Houthi-controlled areas, providing them with significant technical support. There are also allegations of a $10 million sale of small arms to the Houthis, and credible claims that Moscow has provided the group with targeting data for its naval operations and is considering selling them advanced anti-ship missiles.

Expanding ties between the Houthis and Beijing could allow them to rebuild. For example, US intelligence sources allege that China is supplying the Houthi rebels with advanced components and guidance equipment for their weapons in exchange for immunity for Chinese-flagged vessels operating in the Red Sea.

Given the Houthis' apparent resilience, this requires expanding intelligence-sharing agreements with their regional allies, deploying advanced surveillance technologies to track illicit arms shipments, and cooperating closely with Gulf partners to enhance maritime security.

Washington should also prioritize strengthening Yemen's internationally recognized government, also known as the Presidential Council, militarily and through projects that will improve its governance and economic stability.

These efforts could include securing partnerships to revitalize oil and gas production and distribution in Yemen, as well as technical expertise to improve the council's financial management and public sector accountability. This, coupled with security training for council-affiliated forces, such as the Yemeni Coast Guard, would help the council establish a credible alternative to Houthi rule, while strengthening local governance structures and tribal alliances that could undermine the Houthis' support base from within.

The report concluded, "While military action may weaken the Houthi rebels in the short term, truly weakening and ultimately eliminating the group requires the Presidential Council to govern effectively, restore its legitimacy, and offer a viable alternative to Yemenis currently under Houthi control. The Trump administration must keep these goals in mind when formulating its strategy toward the Houthis."