American Fog...and the Iranian Year

The diplomat knows Washington and the corridors of influence in its decision-making. He used to go, especially at the beginning of presidential terms, and return with a number of answers and expectations that helped him compose reports to submit to his superiors. This time, he went and discovered that the task was difficult. He saw the American capital immersed in a thick fog, and the eyes of the world focused on the return of the “strong man” to the White House. He saw the fog spread across the entire American territory, and he felt that the questions were immeasurably more numerous than the half-answers.

There is a feeling in the American house that the country is at a major turning point. And that Donald Trump will not be satisfied with changing some of the furniture in the house, but dreams of changing its features in politics, economics and administration. Elon Musk’s partnership in the new administration has painfully doubled the talk of dismissals, resignations and streamlining the government machine.

The diplomat said that the new American compass is so shaky that it can confuse both enemies and allies. He noted that dealing with the Trump administration at the present time is like walking on rough roads in a fog that almost obscures vision. He came back with the impression that Trump is determined to end the Russian-Ukrainian war, not only out of an obsession with winning the Nobel Peace Prize, but also and before that to reserve an exceptional place in history to compete with his predecessors. In this context, he seems confident in an old thread of friendship that connects him to Vladimir Putin, and the Russian invasion of Ukrainian territory did not lead to its severing.

The visitor also sensed in the atmosphere of Washington an insistence on a firm handling of the Iranian file and on the basis of preventing Tehran from manufacturing the bomb and from mobilizing “parallel armies” to destabilize the region. He did not need to make an effort to conclude that Trump wants to make peace in the Middle East, but he stopped at Benjamin Netanyahu’s success in reserving a position of close and influential alliance with the Trump administration.

It is clear that Donald Trump has been in the driver's seat in America since the first day of his term, and has showered the world with a series of statements and tweets that have spread a climate of fog across the "global village", a fog unleashed by the signs of a trade war and the approach to the Ukrainian file on the basis of recognizing the facts imposed by the Russian war, in addition to unleashing fog in the Middle East through the reprehensible proposal to transfer the residents of Gaza to turn it into a "wonderful Riviera". This fog is absent regarding the Iranian nuclear file, as the Trump administration does not seem to be inclined to back down.

A thick fog enveloped Europe as J.D. Vance stood at the Munich Security Conference to scold European countries for what he called “the suppression of freedoms” and their treatment of the far right. It quickly became apparent that Europe was panicking about the possibility that the future of the Ukrainian file would be decided in its absence, and without the file’s owner, President Volodymyr Zelensky, being a full partner. Vance’s words were added to Trump’s… that America would not forever pay the price for protecting Europe.

Trump’s position that Europe should not pay for its defense is not new. He made this position public in 1987, when he was still a political outsider. That year, he visited Moscow as a real estate developer, returned impressed by the opportunities, and made a statement about the price of protecting Europe, which can pay for its own defense.

If Europe is preoccupied with the fate of the Ukrainian file, which Trump quickly opened wide, the people of the Middle East will be preoccupied, in addition to the issue of peace, with the trend towards turning this year into an Iranian year par excellence. Trump has categorically pledged not to allow Tehran to possess a nuclear bomb. His Secretary of State Marco Rubio reiterated this pledge yesterday in Israel, accompanied by a similar pledge from Benjamin Netanyahu. The prevailing impression is that any new agreement with Iran will not ignore its missile arsenal and its role in destabilizing the region. The question is: Can the Iranian leader accept concessions of this magnitude that reduce his country’s role, especially after its losses in Syria and Lebanon?

Amidst the dense American fog, the approaching entitlements in the Palestinian, Iranian and Ukrainian files are rushing. It can also be said that Syria, Lebanon and Iraq are countries concerned with the fog and American options in these files. In this context, a deep and detailed dialogue with the Trump administration is necessary, as merely protesting does not constitute a policy, nor does it preserve stability and rights. It will be necessary to formulate an Arab vision, especially in the peace file and on the basis of moving towards a two-state solution, which is the only way to extinguish the fire of this chronic conflict.

It is clear that Saudi Arabia, with its political and economic weight, is at the forefront of Arab and Islamic countries capable of playing a role of this kind. Its hosting of the US-Russian meetings, leading up to the summit, reflects Washington and Moscow’s appreciation of the importance of its Arab, Islamic and international presence. The ongoing consultations to prepare an alternative plan to Trump’s plan on Gaza are in this direction, and Saudi Arabia will be able to benefit from a solid foundation it has built in international relations with countries of influence such as China and India, in addition to the European Union.

We must prepare for the Iranian year. Reaching an American-Iranian agreement will be a major event and a transformation in the region. Israel’s destruction of Iranian nuclear facilities with American support will also be a major event and a danger that we must prepare to avoid its consequences. Dense fog does not prevent safe leadership if countries prepare their cards well, take advantage of their strengths, and engage in dialogue with the Trump administration on the basis of mutual interests, the benefits of stability, investment returns, and prosperity.

*Quoted from Asharq Al-Awsat