"It Was Not Surprising" Foreign Policy Reveals the Secrets of the Rapid Collapse of the Assad Regime

economic collapse

According to the analysis, the Syrian economy has been in chaos for years, with the Syrian pound collapsing to 17,500 to the dollar on December 4, after it was 1,150 in early 2020.

While the Syrian regime's "embrace" of organized crime has continued to generate profits of at least $2.4 billion annually from the sale of one type of synthetic drug, it has not helped the Syrian people's livelihood, Lester claims.

However, “there is no one left to save Bashar al-Assad from the bankruptcy of his state,” as the Russian economy has been severely damaged by the effects of its war in Ukraine, and the Iranian economy, too, is in poor shape.

But Lester believes, in his analysis, that the situation should not have been this way, adding that if Assad had engaged constructively with the regional governments that normalized relations with him in 2023, and adopted an opening to Turkey earlier this year, Syria would be in a much different situation today.

He went on to say that the Syrians, after realizing that there is no light at the end of the tunnel, began to take to the streets and demand the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad.

He pointed out that the armed opposition, which "reconciled" with Damascus under an agreement 6 years ago, began months ago to challenge the regime's army again, and achieved victories.

Captagon

Amid Syria’s current economic collapse, organized crime and industrial-scale drug production and trafficking have infiltrated the heart of Assad’s security apparatus, Lester notes, noting that the Assad regime may now be “the world’s largest drug regime, specializing in the production of the amphetamine known as Captagon.”

The drug trade, the author revealed, was run by Syria’s elite Fourth Division (led by Bashar al-Assad’s brother Maher), but its network extended to every corner of the Syrian army and its loyal militias. However, organized crime and warlords have torn apart what remained of the “weak cohesion” within the Syrian security state.

He concluded that the regime's military machine has stagnated in all aspects in recent years, has eroded from within and fragmented from without, and it can even be said that the militias loyal to Assad have become militarily stronger than the army itself.

In contrast, Lister continues, HTS and other armed opposition groups have worked intensively since 2020 to bolster their own capabilities. HTS, in particular, has created entirely new units that have arguably changed the rules of the game on the battlefield in recent days.

Source: Foreign Policy