International reports: Israel will expand its military campaign against the Houthis with the formation of a multilateral coalition

International reports suggest that Israel will expand its military campaign against the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen, including forming a broad, multilateral coalition, which could lead to an expansion of the conflict in the region.

Israel has recently escalated its air campaign against the Houthi movement in Yemen in response to repeated Houthi attacks on Israel. Most recently, on December 26, Israel struck Sanaa, including its airport, as well as ports and power stations in places such as the key port city of Hodeidah.

The London-based New Arabs newspaper said - in an analysis by journalist Samuel Ramani - that although Israeli air defenses have been largely effective in limiting civilian casualties from Houthi missile attacks, the attacks remain a thorn in Israel's side. The port of Eilat is no longer a reliable transit hub, and some Israeli ships have been forced to sail around Africa via circuitous routes.

The writer pointed out that the recent mutual military actions led to a renewed escalation between Israel and the Houthis, as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that the Houthis would follow the path of Hamas, Hezbollah and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to defeat.

Despite the fiery rhetoric, he added, a broad Israeli military intervention against the Houthis is unlikely to produce a decisive victory. Iran’s continued covert support for the Houthis and the group’s ability to create a siege mentality around Israeli strikes will help maintain the stalemate.

“Israel will have to commit to a broader military intervention and a broad multilateral coalition to seriously degrade the Houthis’ capabilities, with severe restrictions on airstrikes against the Houthis another crucial factor,” the writer said.

He explained that during the Saudi-led military intervention in Yemen, the coalition was only able to achieve meaningful territorial gains against the Houthis when it combined air strikes with the deployment of ground forces.

He said the intermittent intensity of Israeli, American and British air strikes on Houthi air assets was a setback compared to what they had faced in the past, and the Houthis were well prepared to weather the storm.

“If we’ve learned anything from the past decade, it’s that the air campaign alone has failed to deter the Houthis. It has emboldened them,” Nadwa Aldawsari, a Yemen expert and nonresident scholar at the Middle East Institute, told The New Arab.

According to the writer, "This means that Israel will have to commit to a broader military intervention and form a broad multilateral coalition to seriously reduce the capabilities of the Houthis."

How can Iran support the Houthis against Israel?

With Assad’s fall from power and Israeli airstrikes seriously degrading the capabilities of Iran’s axis of resistance, Yemen’s strategic importance to Tehran has increased. In his New Year’s address, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei hailed the Houthis and Hezbollah as “symbols of resistance” and declared that Yemen would prevail.

Former IRGC commander Hossein Allahkaram recently said that Yemen has replaced Syria as the backbone of Iran’s axis of resistance. Ibrahim Jalal, a Yemen expert and nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, believes we should take this Iranian rhetoric seriously.

Jalal said in a statement to the newspaper that "the Houthis are leading the escalation of the axis of resistance," considering that the destruction of Hezbollah, the fall of Assad, and the control of the Iraqi militias will lead to more Iranian aid to the Houthis.

Although the Houthis claim to be self-sufficient in weapons production, Iran has expanded its arms shipments to Yemen in recent days. The Palestine 2’s close resemblance to Iran’s Fateh missiles has received much attention, although experts doubt the Houthis have hypersonic capabilities.

The Houthis could also seek Iranian support through other means. If the Houthis decide to launch a larger-scale missile barrage against Israel, Iranian security expert Hassan Hanizadeh claims they would likely receive support from Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces and the Hezbollah al-Nujaba militia.

Escalation possibilities

The newspaper considered that the escalation of hostilities between Israel and the Houthis would lead to the re-ignition of the ongoing Yemeni civil war. The Southern Transitional Council, a separatist organization in southern Yemen allied with the United Arab Emirates, has exerted continuous pressure for stronger military action against the Houthis.

Although the Houthis appear to be firmly in power in northern Yemen, backed by massive military arsenals and thousands of loyal soldiers, the fall of Assad has prompted some Houthi opponents to envision a similarly rapid regime change.

There is also a growing risk that the conflict between Israel and the Houthis will become regionalized. At a UN Security Council meeting on December 30, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar tried to forge a multilateral coalition against the Houthis and reach a common understanding on the group’s status as a foreign terrorist organization.

He pointed out that Sa'ar highlighted the threats posed by the Houthis to navigation in the Red Sea and the Suez Canal in his attempt to gain international support.

Saudi Arabia’s perceived association with Israel’s war against the Houthis could drag it into the conflict, the analysis said. In July, the Houthis accused Saudi Arabia and the United States of forcing the central bank in Aden to block financial transactions in Sanaa and warned of “war on Riyadh” if its financial pressures continued.

Saudi Arabia’s caution against military intervention in Yemen has led it to defuse the crisis through diplomacy and the signing of an “economic de-escalation agreement” with the Houthis. However, the Houthi-run Al Masirah TV channel continues to spread conspiracy theories about cooperation between MI6 and Saudi intelligence, portraying Saudi Arabia as an aggressor in Yemen.

Many Yemeni analysts believe that renewed conflict between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia is only a matter of time. Al-Dosari told the newspaper that a Saudi-Houthi “escalation” is inevitable, and claimed that “Saudi Arabia is a strategic target for the Houthis, regardless of Israel’s involvement and the current ceasefire.”

Although Houthi attacks on shipping assets fell by 44% in the second half of 2024, they still pose a threat to business activity. As a fragile ceasefire in Lebanon holds and negotiations with Hamas over a hostage deal in Gaza gain momentum, Yemen is becoming an escalating front line in Israel’s proxy war against Iran.

In turn, the American Stratfor Institute said that Israel is likely to expand its campaign against the Houthis in Yemen, focusing first on targeted strikes on Houthi military infrastructure and officials; but when this likely fails to deter the Houthi militants, Israel will escalate its campaign further, which could lead to the spread of the conflict to the Gulf states and the reactivation of the Yemeni civil war.

In this context, the Singapore-based Asian website Caracal said that Israel may target the Houthis with the support of its intelligence agencies, while Saudi-backed forces, which may be supported by US aid, may try to seize Sanaa. However, Yemen poses a unique challenge for Israel due to its geographical distance and significant cultural and social differences from Syria.

“If Israel targets the Houthis, the Yemeni opposition groups or their partners in the Saudi-led coalition are likely to carry out a relatively simple mission. This will involve a strategy of surgical strikes and targeted attacks similar to those that severely weakened Hezbollah by eliminating key leaders. If successful, the Houthis will be significantly diminished, reducing their threat,” the site added.

"Although the timeline for such an outcome remains uncertain, if the Houthis continue their missile attacks against Israel, a solution will eventually emerge, providing an opportunity for opposition groups in Yemen to retake the capital and reunify the country," he said.