International report: Houthi ties to Somalia's al-Shabaab could once again endanger shipping

A recent international report warned of the dangers of the emerging alliance between the al-Shabaab movement in Somalia and the Houthis in Yemen, stressing that this alliance could have security repercussions through a commercial shipping chokepoint linking the Gulf of Aden to the Red Sea.

According to a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Africa's most lethal terrorist organization is expected to gain further strength in Somalia, increasing the security threat across the Middle East's chokepoint for commercial shipping.

The Somali militant group al-Shabaab is preparing to exploit its emerging alliance with Houthi rebels in Yemen, an alliance that could allow the group to attack ships with drones or even missiles, according to a global terrorist threat assessment by the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The report described al-Shabaab as a de facto state and a "direct threat" to US interests, and "likely to become more capable in 2025."

The report quoted a senior aide to the leader of the anti-Houthi National Resistance as saying that the group intends to provide al-Shabab fighters with more advanced weapons to give them the ability to target ships transiting the Gulf of Aden.

The report said that "the Houthis may, and may already, be providing al-Shabaab with some of the benefits of state patronage," in the areas of military training and drone technology.

For more than a year, US warships have been fighting the Iran-backed Houthis in an attempt to prevent the group from launching attacks on commercial vessels.

He added, "If Al-Shabaab enters the battle, it could complicate efforts to liberate shipping lanes extending from the Gulf of Aden to the Red Sea."

Signs of close ties between the Somali group and the Houthis could come to the fore on Thursday, when General Michael Langley of the U.S. Africa Command appears before the Senate Armed Services Committee in Washington.

The leadership's efforts to combat al-Shabaab have been the military's primary effort in Africa for years. For more than two decades, the al-Qaeda-allied group has waged a war for control of Somalia.

Despite an internal campaign against it, the group has proven its resilience. The US Africa Command (AFRICOM) has launched numerous airstrikes against al-Shabaab and sent special operations forces to advise and assist the Somali fighters.

However, these efforts have made little difference, according to a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The report added that al-Shabaab has between 7,000 and 12,000 fighters and controls a large swath of territory in southern Somalia.

The report explained that the organization also generates more than $100 million annually in revenue through various means, including taxes, adding that al-Shabaab is wealthy enough to distribute the funds to other al-Qaeda affiliates.

However, the report said that escalating the US air campaign could backfire, pointing to previous years when the group intensified its attacks against US interests in response to US strikes.

For example, in 2020, al-Shabaab launched a cross-border attack on a military site in Kenya, killing a US soldier and two contractors at a time when drone attacks were at their peak.

"Animosity is likely to increase if President (Donald) Trump resumes his highly active approach toward the group," the report said, adding that it is likely to remain a threat for the foreseeable future.