The extensive US strikes against the Houthis: What does this mean for Yemen, Iran, and others?

"We will use overwhelming lethal force," is how US President Donald Trump described the airstrike campaign he launched Saturday against the Houthis in Yemen. The campaign was launched in response to the Iranian-backed militias' disruption of international shipping in the Red Sea since October 2023, and their continued operations despite previous rounds of US and allied airstrikes.

But how is the second Trump administration carrying out its largest military campaign yet? What is its impact on the region? What does this imply for Trump's approach to Iran? And has the United States' strategy against the Houthis changed? These are questions answered by an American research center in an analysis translated by Yemen Youth Net.

Atlantic Council experts offered mixed analyses, with some viewing it as a significant shift in strategy toward the Houthis, while others called for a more comprehensive coalition approach, arguing that a few days of strikes alone would not halt Houthi attacks.

Some saw the importance of intensifying diplomacy with Russia and China, while others offered a different approach, highlighting the differences between the current and previous attacks carried out by the Biden administration, and that US deterrence policy will take time to demonstrate its effectiveness.

Intensify diplomacy and other resources

Daniel Mouton, a researcher at the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, said, "Moving into the latest round of strikes against the Houthis, Trump's statement, if implemented, gives us a clear indication of the US's direction in the Middle East."

Mouton ruled out the possibility that the Houthis would be deterred by the current round of airstrikes. Given that the Houthis receive support not only from Iran but also from supply networks in China and Russia, the United States will need to deploy greater resources.

These additional resources will include, according to Mouton, who served as director for defense and military policy for the Middle East at the National Security Council from 2021 to 2023, "diplomatic engagement with Russia and China, additional naval resources to prevent Houthi resupply, and effective pressure on Iran."

These resources include the potential need to bolster the defenses of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, both previously targeted by the Houthis, and will be significant in terms of both military assets and international coordination, according to researcher Moton.

He said, "In the coming days and weeks, signs of the seriousness of America's intentions to exert more efforts will become clear. This level of commitment, more than Saturday's strikes, is what will send a serious American message to Iran and the region."

Expect Houthi retaliation against American targets

Emily Milliken, associate director for media and communications for the N7 Initiative in the Atlantic Council's Middle East Programs, said that the recent US strikes targeted Houthi strongholds known to house their leadership and infrastructure.

"These operations are closely aligned with previous statements by Trump and members of his administration that the United States needs to take a more aggressive stance against the rebel group," she added.

While strikes targeting Houthi bases, leaders, and missile defenses may impact their ability to operate in the short term, according to Milliken, "the Houthis have proven resilient in the past and remain capable of posing a regional threat after successive strikes by the Saudi-led coalition, and more recently, the United States and the United Kingdom."

Looking ahead, the group is likely to launch a retaliatory strike, possibly targeting the USS Truman carrier strike group in the Red Sea or US bases in the region, according to Maclean's.

But the American researcher believed that this revenge was intended to demonstrate "to the Yemenis living under their control, to their supporters in Tehran, and to the broader international community," and also to convey the message that "they have not yet been deterred by American operations."

The rebels may also continue ground operations in Marib, the last remaining stronghold of the Yemeni government and a major center for oil and gas resources, or launch attacks on key Saudi infrastructure, in an attempt to force the government in Riyadh into a weak position ahead of potential peace negotiations, according to Milliken.

An important change in the strategy for dealing with the Houthis

Danny Citrinovic, a senior fellow with the Atlantic Council's Middle East Programs and a member of the council's Iran Strategy Project Working Group, said, "The attacks carried out by US Central Command in Yemen represent the beginning of a targeted campaign against the Houthis and constitute a significant shift in US policy toward the Yemeni terrorist organization."

The US military's initiative to launch targeted operations against Houthi leadership and weapons production sites in Yemen, according to Citrinovic, "highlights the US administration's view of the need to prevent the Houthis from disrupting freedom of navigation in the Red Sea, and is an important signal to the United States' friends in the region about Washington's readiness to seriously confront the Houthis."

For the campaign to be effective, Citrinovic recommends it be sustained, damaging Houthi command and control sites and their ability to produce and launch missiles and drones. The campaign must also hinder Iran's ability to support the Houthis' force buildup (across the Arabian Sea and Oman), relying on Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which are well aware of the Yemeni arena.

In the future, this campaign is bound to lead to the overthrow of the Houthi regime, a move that would severely damage Iran's presence in this strategic region and its ability to threaten Saudi Arabia, according to researcher Citrinovic.

Given the existing high tensions, these attacks, especially if the United States suspects that Iran continues to aid the Houthis, could also bring Tehran and Washington closer to confrontation.

The suffering of Yemenis and the Houthis' exploitation of the bombing

On the other hand, Yemeni researcher Osama Al-Rawhani, a non-resident senior fellow at the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, said, "The US bombing of Sanaa and other areas in Yemen represents a new escalation in the war with the Houthis."

"The difference between these attacks and those that occurred in the past is that the latter were aimed directly at the Houthi leadership," he said, adding, "While the attacks also focused on military facilities and equipment, draining the Houthis' resources, the group has consistently demonstrated its ability to adapt and recover."

Although the attacks themselves may not yield results yet, according to Rouhani, they send a strong deterrent message from the United States to the Houthi leadership. He said, "The Houthis are likely to resist, which means that the US deterrence policy will take time to demonstrate its effectiveness."

In addition to their direct impact on the Houthis, these airstrikes have a profound impact on civilians, as Houthi-controlled territory represents more than 60% of Yemen's population. According to Rouhani, this "stirs up fear and increases resentment toward the United States among citizens who do not support the Houthis."

The widespread destruction and civilian casualties are sure to spark widespread anger, which the Houthis could exploit to garner more support. According to Rouhani, "Without a comprehensive approach that disrupts the smuggling of weapons and spare parts from Iran and addresses the political and economic factors that empower the Houthis, the bombing threatens to prolong the suffering of Yemenis."

The first raids

“The Houthis’ resilience stems from the spread of their weapons across Yemen’s rugged terrain, complicating targeting efforts,” says Alex Bletsas, a fellow at the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative and director of the Atlantic Council’s Counterterrorism Project.

He added, "The lack of actionable intelligence hampered coalition strikes, despite months of intensive intelligence gathering efforts. This enhanced the group's ability to adapt, conceal its origins, and leverage Iranian support, making it difficult to suppress."

"The recent large-scale US airstrikes are likely driven by months of painstaking intelligence work and will be the first of many if they succeed in achieving the goal of halting attacks on international shipping and US interests," said Bletsas, the former head of sensitive special operations and counterterrorism activities in the Office of the Secretary of Defense.

The need for a more comprehensive approach

Researcher Andrew Boren, a member of the Atlantic Council's Counterterrorism Project, believes that "counterterrorism can be an effective unifying force, given the challenges facing some military alliances elsewhere. This may be one area where the United States, European powers, and the Saudi-led Arab coalition can agree on the necessary measures."

"They all share a common motive to combat the terrorist group and begin to diminish Iran's decades-long role as the world's leading state sponsor of terrorism," he added.

Boren, a former official in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, believes that history suggests that "without a more comprehensive coalition approach to addressing the relationship between the Houthis and Iran, airstrikes alone will not be sufficient to expel the Houthis from Yemen or restore stability to one of the world's most important trade routes."

Understanding the history of these tensions is essential to understanding the present and what may come next, according to Boren, who said, "Iranian support is pivotal to the Houthis' operations. Without direct Iranian weapons, training, and intelligence, they would not have been able to withstand the battlefield and target commercial vessels with precision."

The first Trump administration demonstrated a willingness to aggressively confront Iran's direct proxies, even senior Iranian military leaders, and this precedent may be relevant now as the United States responds again to Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, according to researcher Boren.

Houthi operations have disrupted a vital sea route for 15% of global trade, sometimes forcing major companies to abandon this waterway and reroute around Africa, resulting in higher costs and global economic repercussions.

Strikes alone will not stop Houthi attacks.

Finally, Thomas Warrick, a nonresident senior fellow at the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, points out that “most Americans have learned not to view the Trump administration as patient, but the Houthis received a harsh lesson this week in Trump’s impatience.”

"Almost every outside observer had long ago concluded that the limited strikes launched by the Biden administration since the Houthis began attacking international shipping in the Red Sea had not deterred them from continuing strikes when it suited them," he added.

"The Trump administration has now decided to escalate the attacks to see if a more painful show of force will stop them," said Warrick, a former deputy assistant secretary for counterterrorism policy at the US Department of Homeland Security.

The greatest danger to both the United States and the Houthis is that any amount of destruction, short of targeting the Houthi leadership and military capabilities, will not achieve what the Trump administration seeks, according to Warrick, who believes that "a few days of strikes are unlikely to end the Houthi attacks, unless the Trump administration is prepared to go further."