Iran, the "painful scenes" and the moment of decision

The experienced politician said that the recent US raids on Houthi sites may be the Donald Trump administration's final message to Iran before the moment of decision and resolution regarding its nuclear program. He believed that the region could be heading towards a major crisis unless the Iranian Supreme Leader quickly makes a major, painful decision to "dismantle the nuclear program and give up the ability to manipulate the region, especially after what has happened there."

Trump's message to the Iranian leadership reminded me of what happened in the early years of this century between America and Libya. Muammar Gaddafi asked his foreign minister, Abdel Rahman Shalgam, to persuade his friend, Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, to intervene with President George W. Bush to improve relations between Washington and Tripoli. Bouteflika agreed, raised the issue, and told Shalgam what he had heard in the interview: "Either you disarm your weapons of mass destruction, or he (Bush) will destroy them himself and everything else without discussion." Shalgam relayed the statement to Gaddafi, who responded by saying, "You are afraid and a coward."

Gaddafi reversed his calculations and ultimately chose to save his regime rather than slide into a confrontation with America. One day, Saif al-Islam Gaddafi called the British intelligence headquarters switchboard and left a voice message saying, "I am Saif al-Islam, son of Muammar Gaddafi, and I want to speak with you regarding weapons of mass destruction." When an appointment was set, he said that in return he wanted to improve relations. Libya subsequently dismantled its centrifuges and handed some over to the Americans. Libya also severed its previous ties with organizations and parties that had served as its arms.

Iran is not like Libya, neither in its regime nor in its decision-making process. It is a major power in the region, possessing human, military, and economic capabilities. However, it has been approaching the moment of truth since Trump returned to the White House. For decades, it has avoided sliding into a direct confrontation with the American military machine, preferring to undermine American influence in the region through manipulation. But what if it finds itself in a situation similar to that faced by Libya—a choice between the safety of the regime and a confrontation with almost certain outcomes?

Politicians and analysts say that Iran is currently facing its most difficult situation since the victory of the Khomeini revolution, or at least since the end of the long war with Saddam Hussein's regime. Since his return to the Oval Office, Trump has been setting the daily agenda for the inhabitants of the "global village." He rules the world with tweets and short sentences. He is breaking rules that were thought to be unbreakable, from trade wars, tariffs, and sanctions to threats to change maps and the balance of power.

The politician spoke of painful scenes that Iran could not help but reflect on. Hamas launched Operation Protective Edge, and the people of Gaza made extraordinary sacrifices. However, the Strip is currently devastated, and the issue of Hamas's weapons is on the table. While disarming Hamas is unlikely at the present time, the international community will only accept removing it from the military conflict with Israel for many years if reconstruction is to be achieved. It is clear that Hamas has accepted a lesser role in the Strip after the end of the hostage and exchange period.

The politician noted that Iran had generously supported Hamas, but was unable to save it. He also said that Hezbollah had opened a "support front," but was unable to change the course of the war in Gaza and had lost its Secretary-General, Hassan Nasrallah, a loss it appears unable to compensate for. Moreover, the fate of its weapons is on the table—not only due to international and regional desires, but also due to widespread domestic desires. Iran was unable to save Hezbollah, nor was it able to save its military presence in Syria. It was unable to prevent the collapse of its ally, Bashar al-Assad's regime, and Russia did not volunteer to play such a role.

The politician added to the above two "painful scenes" for Tehran. The first is its inability to continue exchanging direct strikes with Israel, and the wars in Gaza and Lebanon demonstrated the Israeli military's technological and military superiority, enabling it to violate the airspace of countries near and far. The second is the pledge by the man who ordered the killing of Qassem Soleimani to use all means to prevent Iran from relying on an "insurance policy" for its regime called the nuclear bomb.

He noted that a new balance has emerged in the region, and that Iran does not appear capable of changing the course of events, neither in Syria, Lebanon, nor Gaza. He pointed out that the decline of Iranian influence in Syria has been accompanied by an increase in Turkish influence there, which makes the situation even more difficult for Tehran. Trump has returned to exercising "maximum pressure" on Iran. The outcome of the wars in the region serves his pressure. The recent US raids on Houthi sites are similar to a demand from Iran to quickly draw realistic conclusions from the painful scenes that have unfolded in the region.

Qassem Soleimani once drew a regional defense line for his country. He achieved breakthroughs in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. Separating the Syrian link from the "axis of resistance" cut off Soleimani's path and fractured the defensive line he had built.

Events are evolving in the region. New balances, new dimensions, and new roles are emerging. Trump's America has a decisive role in the region. Russia is interested in maximizing the reward it will receive in Ukraine. Iran's Supreme Leader faces a difficult decision to obtain a certificate of good conduct on the nuclear issue and refrain from attempting to rebuild the "axis of resistance" and the policy of proxies. The moment of decision is approaching.

*Quoted from Asharq Al-Awsat