The most difficult days of the guide

Iran is a large and ancient country. The region has a vested interest in seeing it stable and prosperous, far from the rhetoric of threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz and sponsoring Houthi missiles in the Red Sea. The Khomeini revolution in Iran was not just a major coup. Its constitution enshrined a project to overturn the regional balance of power, and the clause for exporting the revolution was clear. It is no exaggeration to say that since the victory of the revolution in 1979, the Middle East has been experiencing the longest coup in its history. The Iran-Iraq War halted the coup for eight years, only for it to resume. Saddam Hussein used to say that the fall of the Iraqi wall would extend Iranian influence to the borders of Morocco.

Khomeini's revolution was born on the front lines with the "Great Satan." Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei certainly remembers the old scenes. The sons of the revolution stormed the US embassy in Tehran and humiliated the "American giant" in the longest hostage-taking operation. He can also remember how, in 1983, Beirut woke up to a tremendous roar. Two explosions targeted the Marines' headquarters and the French contingent in the multinational force, leaving hundreds dead. The "Great Satan" carried the bodies of his soldiers and left Lebanon. He is not far from what happened in 2006. A war between the Lebanese Hezbollah and Israel, which General Qassem Soleimani helped direct from Lebanese territory. The war led to the breaking of the siege imposed on Hezbollah and Syria after the assassination of Rafik Hariri. He also remembers that Soleimani directed the process of draining the US occupation of Iraq and launched the era of factions in Baghdad. Khamenei can recall many successes, including saving President Bashar al-Assad from the fate that befell Muammar Gaddafi, Ali Abdullah Saleh, Hosni Mubarak, and Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. He himself heard his generals boasting that the keys to four Arab capitals were located in Tehran.

The Supreme Leader can recall other scenes. Barack Obama was eager to conclude a nuclear agreement with Iran. The Iranian negotiator succeeded in excluding regional activity and the missile arsenal from the negotiations. Iran followed the stages of the great coup, and the fall of Saddam Hussein paved the way for Soleimani's path from Tehran to Beirut, via Baghdad and Damascus. The assassination of Soleimani, on the orders of Donald Trump during his first term, was a painful blow, but it did not halt the coup project or block the road.

Despite its economic woes, Iran spared no effort in supplying its proxies with weapons and funding. It rejoiced in surrounding maps and areas with missiles and drones. A sense prevailed in Tehran that the empire of factions was no longer a threat and was promising to expand. It believed that Israel was incapable of paying the price of a major war. It was rumored within the corridors of the resistance that a "major blow" would one day surprise the Hebrew state and reveal it to be weaker than a spider's web. It also believed that America, preoccupied with the rise of China, would not engage in a major, costly coup in the Middle East. Iran and its allies misjudged the depth of America's commitment to Israel's security. When Yahya Sinwar launched the "Al-Aqsa Flood" and Hassan Nasrallah followed suit by launching the "Support Front," it was believed that the "major blow" had already been launched.

The most difficult days for the Supreme Leader. His country's image in the region today is different from what it was before the "flood." His decision concerns his country and the region, and the new balances are not in Tehran's interest. One day, Khomeini agreed to drink the cup of poison and accepted a ceasefire, relinquishing his dream of "overthrowing the infidel Baathist regime in Iraq." Will Khamenei agree to drink the poison of accepting Iran's return to Iran without a bomb and without arms?

(The Middle East)