Sudanese-Russian agreement to establish a military base on the Red Sea.. Has Moscow achieved its old dream?

Discussions over the establishment of a Russian naval base in Port Sudan, the first Russian naval base abroad since the collapse of the Soviet Union, date back to 2019 when the two countries signed a preliminary agreement on the matter, but internal unrest and a protracted civil war delayed its ratification.

Late last year, the Russian embassy in Khartoum denied what it described as “Western media allegations” that Sudan had refused to host a Russian naval base in Port Sudan on the Red Sea.

Sudan's ambassador to Moscow, Mohamed Seraj, also denied the allegations, saying his country had not rejected the agreement with Russia to establish a naval base, and described the accusations as "false" and "misleading."

But the final agreement, which came after lengthy discussions between the two countries, if implemented, is an important development in Russian-Sudanese relations, and meets Moscow's efforts to strengthen its strategic presence in the Red Sea region and obtain a military foothold in Sudan, and confirms Moscow's expanding geopolitical interests in the African continent in general.

Geopolitical achievement

International conflict researcher Fyodor Kuzmin explains that the agreed Russian naval base in Port Sudan is located along a vital area where many parties have tried to establish a foothold, but only Russia has succeeded, to a minimal extent so far.

He added to Al Jazeera Net that the implementation of this agreement would help restore the Russian naval presence in the region and increase the operational capabilities of the Russian fleet. It would not only ensure a foothold on the Red Sea and access to the Indian Ocean, but would also mitigate the threats that Russian tankers and ships could be exposed to there.

According to him, Moscow has recently intensified its negotiations with Sudanese officials even as fighting continues in the capital, Khartoum, and Russian interest in Port Sudan has increased amid fears of losing its military presence in Syria.

The new base will also serve as a bridge to Africa, a vital resource with vast untapped resources that could help Russia's economy in the long run.

questions

For his part, military and security expert Anton Mardasov calls for caution in giving a final assessment of the results of the Sudanese minister’s visit regarding the future of the Russian base in Port Sudan, pending the announcement of the final version of the agreement.

According to him, the phrase “We reached a mutual understanding on the Al-Qaeda issue, and I have nothing to add... and we agreed on everything” bears some interpretations, one of which may be that what was agreed upon does not necessarily match the initial and known formula of the agreement.

Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, the expert points out that the draft agreement stipulates that the naval base meets the goals of maintaining peace and stability in the region, especially since it is defensive and does not target other countries, but the construction of the base cannot be separated from the commercial and geopolitical realities in the region.

The region, he continues, is rich in natural resources such as gas and gold, and includes two vital points that are crucial to global trade (the Suez Canal and the Bab al-Mandab Strait). Moreover, the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa have become, in the past two decades, a site for the development and deployment of foreign military bases.

In his opinion, the delay in announcing the occurrence of an “understanding on everything” comes despite the security and military situation remaining the same, and amid the absence of complete control by the Sudanese army over all areas of the country, which in turn leaves room for the possibility of reconsidering the fate of the Russian base in Port Sudan, if the situation in Sudan changes, as happened in Syria.

Source: Al Jazeera