What do we know about the rapid advance of armed opposition forces in northern Syria?

Within 48 hours, the Syrian armed opposition factions were able to control areas in central Aleppo and others in the Idlib countryside in the northwest of the country, in an attack that is the first of its kind in 5 years. So why did the attack come now after years of relative calm? Who are the active forces in it? And does it pose a threat to the Syrian army?

The Military Operations Administration (a coalition of opposition factions) launched an attack on areas controlled by the Syrian government in the provinces of Aleppo (north) and Idlib (northwest).

The Syrian army acknowledged that armed opposition factions had entered "large parts" of the city of Aleppo, and that dozens of its members had been killed in clashes extending along a front about 100 kilometers long.

The battles resulted in the deaths of 311 people, most of whom were fighters from both sides of the conflict, including civilians, most of whom were killed in bombing by Russian aircraft supporting the Syrian army in the battle.

Dareen Khalifa, a researcher at the International Crisis Group, says that these factions had been preparing for the attack for months.

The opposition called the attack "deterrence of aggression" and considered it a defensive step after the Syrian army intensified its shelling and bombing of opposition areas in recent months.

The factions, which coordinate their operations within a joint operations room, launched the attack on the day the ceasefire agreement in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah came into effect after a 13-month conflict between the two parties over the Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip.

During that period, Israel intensified its raids in Syria on groups loyal to Iran that support Assad, including Hezbollah, which directly supported Syrian government forces in the internal conflict over the past years.

Russia is also considered a prominent ally of Assad, and its direct military intervention since 2015 has helped tip the balance of power in the field in Damascus's favor.

“They think this is a time when the Iranians are weak, the Syrian government is besieged, and Turkey (which supports some armed factions in northern Syria) is more bold towards Russia,” Khalifa says.

Who are the active forces?

The forces supporting each party have so far refrained from making any escalatory comment.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov considered the situation in Aleppo a "violation of Syria's sovereignty." He expressed his country's support for "the Syrian government in restoring order in the region and restoring constitutional order."

Türkiye called for a "cessation of attacks" on the city of Idlib and its surroundings, the stronghold of the armed opposition in the northwest of the country.

The Foreign Ministry spokesman said via the X platform that the recent clashes "led to an unwanted escalation of tensions in the border area."

Tehran renewed its firm support for its ally Syria on Friday, and the Iranian Foreign Ministry said in a statement that Minister Abbas Araghchi "stressed Iran's continued support for the Syrian government, security and army in its fight against terrorism," in a phone call with his Syrian counterpart, Bassam Sabbagh.

"In the next few days, if they can maintain their gains, it will be a test of whether Türkiye will intervene or not," Khalifa told AFP.

This sudden and major attack comes at a time when efforts to bring about rapprochement between Syria and Turkey have faltered over the past two years.

Russia and Iran have pushed for de-escalation between Syria and Turkey, but Damascus insists Ankara must withdraw its forces from its territory before any normalization of relations.

Ankara supported the overthrow of Assad soon after the conflict broke out in 2011, but Türkiye has softened its stance towards Damascus as Syrian forces gradually regain control of areas of the country.

The weak response from Syria's allies could be a way to "force the regime to negotiate from a weak position, in the absence of any sign of support from Iran and Russia," says Caroline Rose of the New Lines Institute in Washington.

Is it a threat to the regime?

This week, the Syrian government suffered its biggest battlefield loss in years. “The regime’s lines collapsed at a staggering pace that surprised everyone,” Khalifa said.

The factions cut off the Damascus-Aleppo international road, and took control of an important intersection between two roads connecting Aleppo to Damascus and Latakia.

Damascus has relied heavily on Russian air power and Hezbollah on the ground to retake vast areas it lost to opposition factions during the war.

But the current attack comes at a time when Russia is preoccupied with its war in Ukraine, and Hezbollah with the blows it received during the long and harsh confrontation with Israel.

"Russia's presence (in Syria) has diminished significantly, and rapid air strikes have become of limited utility," explains Aaron Stein, president of the American Foreign Policy Research Institute.

He believes that the rapid advance of the armed factions "reminds us of the extent of the regime's weakness and perhaps its excessive self-confidence during the past few years with the decline in the intensity of the battles."

Source: French