International newspapers: Gaza is a "humanitarian disaster" and the continuation of the occupation risks the growth of the Palestinian resistance and the exacerbation of Israel's isolation

The British newspaper "The Guardian" published a recent study that revealed that the number of deaths in Gaza is 40% higher than the official number, as the analysis estimates that the number of deaths by the end of June reached 64,260, 59% of whom were women, children and people over the age of 65.

The death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the war between Israel and Hamas was about 40 percent higher than the numbers recorded by the Palestinian Health Ministry, according to a report by the newspaper. The peer-reviewed statistical analysis was conducted by academics at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Yale University and other institutions, using a statistical method called capture-recapture analysis.

The researchers sought to assess the number of people killed as a result of the Israeli air and ground campaign in Gaza between October 2023 and the end of June 2024, and estimated that 64,260 people died from traumatic injuries during this period. The study said 59.1 percent of them were women, children and people over the age of 65. It did not provide an estimate of the number of Palestinian fighters among the dead.

According to Palestinian health officials, the total death toll in the Gaza war has reached more than 46,000 people, out of a total population of about 2.3 million before the war.

The Palestinian Ministry of Health’s ability to maintain electronic death records had previously proven reliable, but deteriorated under the Israeli military campaign, which included raids on hospitals and other health care facilities and disruption of digital communications, the Lancet study said.

The study used death toll data from the Ministry of Health, an online survey launched by the ministry for Palestinians to report the deaths of their relatives, and social media obituaries, to estimate that there were between 55,298 and 78,525 deaths due to traumatic injuries in Gaza through June 30, 2024.

This figure only includes deaths from traumatic injuries, and does not include deaths from lack of health care or food, or the thousands believed to be buried under rubble.

The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics estimates that in addition to the official death toll announced by the Ministry of Health, there are another 11,000 Palestinians missing and presumed dead.

Why is Gaza considered Israel's eternal war?

In turn, the American magazine Foreign Policy published an analysis by writer David Rosenberg, economics editor and columnist for the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, in which he explained the reasons that he said make Gaza Israel's eternal war, noting that the Israelis want the fighting to end, but their leaders do not want that.

More important, according to the author, is the desire of the leaders of the extreme right, who, despite their minority, are literally the dominant force in Israel today and who, the author warns, if they achieve their goals, which is likely, the war will never truly end. Rather, it will turn into a violent occupation, accompanied by Jewish settlement and, ultimately, annexation of territory.

According to the analysis, the main burden of the fighting since October 2023 has been concentrated in the north, especially in the Jabalya refugee camp, which has been horribly devastated – even by the high standards set by Israeli operations in Gaza. The pre-war population of some 1.5 million in the north has been reduced to a fifth of that, mainly through forced evacuations. Those who remain are now being expelled through a scorched-earth policy that approaches the harsh measures outlined in the so-called “Generals’ Plan” drawn up by reserve officers, which aims to cleanse northern Gaza of its population and declare it a restricted military zone.

On the other hand, the writer pointed out that the returns from continuing the prolonged military operation have steadily diminished while the costs have remained high. The Israeli army is suffering regular casualties, the burden of reserve service is burdening families and the economy, and discipline has become lax.

The author said that the purely military argument for continuing the war is based on the fact that Israel has not yet been able to defeat Hamas, which continues to recruit recruits at a faster rate than the Israeli army can eliminate them. Hamas also periodically fires rockets at Israel.

But Netanyahu’s insistence on continuing the fight has less to do with military concerns than with domestic political calculations. If the conflict ends decisively, Netanyahu risks losing the mantle of wartime leader.

From the far right’s perspective, the war is not a tragedy but another miracle. It has reinforced their worldview of a besieged Israel that justifies using whatever means necessary to defend it, including destroying Gaza.

The writer added, "The war also enabled the most extremist settlers in the West Bank to force the Palestinians to leave their lands and launch violent attacks while the army and public opinion were preoccupied with the fighting in Gaza. Above all, the war enabled the re-establishment of Israeli settlements in Gaza."

In some parts of Gaza controlled by the Israeli occupation forces, there are already signs that Israel intends to stay indefinitely. In the Netzarim corridor that separates northern and southern Gaza, for example, the army is building permanent infrastructure.

Gaza is destined to become a permanent humanitarian disaster zone, Foreign Policy analysis said, noting that the idea floated early in the war that Hamas rule would be replaced by the Palestinian Authority and/or regional powers has all but disappeared from the agenda. The United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA), which provides education, medical care and other services in Gaza, may be forced to close its doors later this month when an Israeli law banning contact with the agency goes into effect. The massive and costly task of rebuilding Gaza will not even begin as long as the postwar governmental framework is not widely accepted.

As an occupying power, the task of providing services and humanitarian aid would thus fall to a reluctant Israel, namely the army. In fact, many on the far right welcome this idea because it would entrench the Israeli presence in Gaza.

For Palestinians, this future is nothing short of a disaster—life in ruins, with no functioning economy, and a greater dependence on humanitarian aid than before the war. But for the majority of Israelis who do not share the dreams of the far right, the resumption of the occupation of Gaza (and perhaps full or partial annexation) is also a problem. The war was costly for Israel in terms of money, manpower, and army morale and discipline, which have deteriorated over the past months; the occupation is likely to exacerbate the problems.

As things stand, Israel faces a growing defense burden in the coming years. A prolonged stay in Gaza will only increase the burden. Palestinian resistance will grow, Israel will become more isolated from its Western allies, and perhaps even the anti-war Trump administration in the United States. The prospect of a desirable normalization deal with Saudi Arabia will fade.

The far right cares little about the consequences for Israel, let alone the fate of the Palestinians, making Israelis complicit in a dangerous act of religious fundamentalism.