What are the expected scenarios for the situation in Yemen during the year 2025?

During his interview with Arabi21, Ghanem presented three expected scenarios for events in 2025. The first is that in light of the decline of Iranian influence in Lebanon and Syria, it is expected that the Houthis will continue to escalate their air attacks with missiles and drones on Israel, to fill the void left by the collapse of the Lebanese Hezbollah.

He said that the Houthis will form the most important bulwark to protect Iran from any Israeli military operations that may target its nuclear facilities and infrastructure, stressing that the Houthis are less exposed to Israeli intelligence, and less concerned about the destruction that will befall the infrastructure in the areas under their control, and they, like any religious group, do not pay attention to the extent of the suffering that the people in the areas under their control will endure, as a result of the worsening economic collapse resulting from the ports of Hodeidah and Sana’a airport being taken out of service.

The Yemeni academic pointed out that from the Houthis’ point of view, the cost of continuing Israeli military operations against them exceeds the size of the military losses they will receive, and the longer the Israeli conflict against the Houthis continues without a resolution, the more these military operations will turn into a war of attrition that may force the Israeli government and the US administration to conclude a secret deal, whereby Tehran will abandon its support for the Houthis, in exchange for lifting US sanctions on Iran and providing guarantees that its strategic facilities and infrastructure will not be targeted.

He continued: "This will limit the Houthis' military capabilities and make them more prepared for dialogue with the Yemeni political parties."

In late December, the United States announced that it had carried out precision airstrikes against a missile storage facility and a Houthi command and control facility in Sanaa and other provinces under the control of the Iran-backed group.

On Wednesday, the Houthi group announced the downing of an American plane while carrying out hostile missions in Yemeni airspace, in the second operation of its kind in the last three days.

The military spokesman for the Yemeni group, Yahya Saree, said: "With the help of God Almighty, the air defenses of the Yemeni armed forces were able to shoot down an American MQ-9 aircraft, while it was carrying out hostile missions in the airspace of Ma'rib Governorate."

The United States has launched several attacks against sites in Yemen, since the first strike launched by Washington in cooperation with London on January 12, 2024; with the aim of deterring the Yemeni group, which declared that American and British interests are legitimate targets for it after the targeting.

Arabic21