Washington has no strategy in Yemen. Trump's attacks on the Houthis may fail to achieve their goals.

As US airstrikes against the Houthis in Yemen continue for nearly a week, American observers and analysts are unlikely to achieve their objectives, given the lack of a clear strategy and the disregard for the local context of the conflict in Yemen.

An analysis by the Atlantic Council , an American think tank, cast doubt on the ability of what it described as Trump's military "bludgeon" in Yemen to achieve America's regional goals, referring to the military strikes launched by the United States against the Houthis.

He warned that the Trump administration risks falling into a pattern reminiscent of the post-9/11 global war on terror, choosing short-sighted military action at the expense of developing a sustainable plan for Yemen. He criticized what he considered the neglect by numerous US administrations of the complexities of the conflict, which has led to their failure to implement a sustainable strategy that protects Washington's interests in Yemen and the region as a whole.

The analysis ruled out the possibility that the numerous intertwined conflicts and deteriorating humanitarian conditions in Yemen would be resolved by US military action, which it believed would likely entrench the war, fuel arms flows, foreign intervention, fragmentation, weak governance, and a humanitarian catastrophe.

Regional consequences

According to the analysis, Yemen—which straddles the Bab al-Mandab Strait—is a highly strategic territory overlooking the entrance and exit to the Red Sea, facilitating Houthi attacks on global shipping routes. Furthermore, multiple conflicts and armed groups threaten neighboring countries, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which contributed to the Houthis receiving Iranian support in 2012.

The negative impact of international military intervention in Yemen is evident in the Southern Transitional Council, a UAE-backed separatist movement. Although it has repeatedly clashed with other Yemeni actors, in 2023 it joined other southern factions in calling for the restoration of southern Yemen to its pre-1990 borders, a clear indication that actors like the UAE will pursue their own interests at the expense of a unified Yemeni state.

On the other hand, the analysis indicated that by November 2024, the Houthis were also receiving extensive support from Russia, "which apparently sees the Yemeni group as a tool to respond to and deter Western support for Ukraine."

China has also supplied the Houthis with missiles in exchange for leaving its ships alone. The Houthis have also sought warmer relations with Sunni jihadist groups, including their Yemeni rival, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, and al-Shabaab in Somalia, alliances that help the Houthis tighten their grip on the Bab al-Mandab.

According to the American research center, the toxic mix of factional violence, weak governance, and the intervention of external powers to protect their geopolitical interests has led to a massive humanitarian cost in Yemen.

Furthermore, designating the Houthis as a foreign terrorist organization requires a review of US assistance programs in Yemen and directs the termination of projects, grants, and contracts with entities found to have paid Houthi entities or failed to adequately document Houthi violations.

Insufficient US strategy

The analysis considered the US military approach in Yemen to be essentially a two-pronged strategy: seeking to reduce external terrorist operations and strengthening local capabilities to address the destabilizing insurgency.

First, the United States has relied heavily on its drone program for tactical counterterrorism missions in Yemen, launching more than 300 drone strikes in an attempt to keep al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in check.

These strikes have killed up to 150 civilians and more than 1,000 confirmed militants, according to one observer. The drone strike program has proven effective in combating international terrorism, but it is less effective in resolving insurgencies in the targeted countries. Alternatives to the drone program pose different risks.

The second prong of this strategy involves supporting local actors, primarily the Yemeni government, to strengthen their counterterrorism capacity. According to the Security Assistance Monitor, this support to Yemen has exceeded $850 million. While this approach has prevented the US military from being forced to deploy in Yemen, it has made support conditional on counterterrorism successes, not on much-needed reforms.

The analysis indicates that attacks on the Houthis and designating them as a foreign terrorist organization may harm the group, but they will not help Yemen's political leaders build consensus. "Yemen is now effectively a failed state, with the causes of the conflict and its potential solutions so complex that these complexities have frustrated American decision-makers and pushed the country to the bottom of US foreign policy priorities," it said.

Ignorance of the conflict in Yemen

The civil war is a backdrop to many of Yemen's ills—apparently hardline opponents, weak governance, terrorism, foreign interference, and a humanitarian crisis—each of which poses a significant threat to its stability and ensures that it will likely continue to be a major challenge for Western and regional decision-makers.

In fact, the conflict in Yemen has flourished largely due to the ignorance and missteps of the United States and other Western countries, according to the American think tank.

Although the military confrontation in Yemen is "frozen," according to several observers, the stalemate is leading to an awkward, if unofficial, division between a north ruled by the Houthis and a south ruled by separatist elements opposed to them.

However, as Gregory Johnsen points out, partition "would not be the end of the war in the South. Rather, it would likely create a new round of fighting."
Hans Grundberg, the UN envoy to Yemen, stated in July that "the only way forward in Yemen is to find mutually acceptable solutions through dialogue and negotiation."

While this prospect may seem easier said than done, the United States is not even involved in such an effort in reality, according to American analysis. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has made it clear that his concerns regarding the Yemeni conflict are limited to countering threats to Washington's interests in the region. As he said in an appearance last weekend on Fox News, "We don't care what happens in the Yemeni civil war."