American Institute: What are the scenarios and repercussions of the escalation of the conflict between Israel and the Houthis?

The potential for conflict between Israel and the Houthi rebels in Yemen has escalated from mere possibility to active engagement. Recent events suggest that hostilities are already underway, with both sides conducting offensive operations against each other.

The conflict between Israel and the Houthis has a high potential for escalation, especially given the overlapping interests of regional and global powers. De-escalation will require robust diplomatic efforts, likely involving the United States, Saudi Arabia, and other international stakeholders, to contain the violence and address the root causes of the hostilities.

Recent developments

Houthi attacks on Israel: The Houthi group has launched missiles and drones targeting Israel, allied with the Iran-led “axis of resistance.” These attacks are intended to demonstrate their commitment to anti-Israel rhetoric and support for Palestinian causes.

In response to the Houthi “aggression,” Israel has launched airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen, including the capital Sanaa and the port city of Hodeidah. The strikes are intended to deter further Houthi attacks and signal Israel’s red lines in the region.

Factors contributing to the conflict:

Iranian influence: The Houthis receive support from Iran, which seeks to expand its influence in the region and challenge Israeli and Western interests. This relationship encourages the Houthis to engage in hostilities against Israel.

Regional Dynamics

The Houthis' involvement in the conflict between Israel and Hamas reflects their desire to be recognized as an important player in the Middle East, and to ally themselves with other Iranian-backed groups such as Hezbollah.

• Strategic goals: By attacking ships linked to Israel and launching missiles towards Israel, the Houthis aim to disrupt Israeli economic interests and assert their presence in regional geopolitics.

Implications

• Escalation Risks: The continued exchange of attacks increases the risk of a wider regional conflict, which could drag in other countries and further destabilize the Middle East.
• Maritime Security Threats: Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea pose significant threats to international shipping routes, potentially leading to economic disruption.
• Humanitarian concerns: Israeli airstrikes in Yemen could exacerbate the humanitarian crisis in the country, which is already facing serious challenges due to the long civil war.

In conclusion, the conflict between Israel and the Houthi rebels has shifted from a potential scenario to an active confrontation, driven by regional alliances, strategic calculations, and ideological motivations. The situation remains volatile, with significant implications for regional stability and international security.

On December 19, Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree announced that the Yemeni group had carried out a hypersonic ballistic missile attack on central Israel.

A week later, the Israeli army returned by striking Sana'a International Airport, the Haiz and Ras Qantab power stations, and the infrastructure of the ports of Hodeidah, Salif, and Ras Qantab.

These actions have renewed the spiral of escalation between Israel and the Houthis. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has ominously warned that the Houthis will follow Hamas, Hezbollah and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad into defeat.

4. The extension of the matter to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf

• Houthi targeting of Gulf states: The Houthis may expand their attacks to include Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates, taking advantage of the conflict with Israel to pressure other regional actors.
• Arab-Israeli cooperation: In response, the Gulf states could enhance military and intelligence cooperation with Israel, further solidifying their alignment against Iranian-backed groups.
• Regional polarization: Such actions could deepen divisions in the Middle East, creating an intense and polarized conflict landscape.

5. Civilian casualties and the humanitarian crisis

• Collateral damage in Yemen: Israeli airstrikes on Houthi-controlled areas could exacerbate Yemen’s already dire humanitarian crisis, fueling anti-Israel sentiment and regional condemnation.
• International pressure: The widespread occurrence of civilian casualties could lead to increased pressure from the international community, which could lead to restraining Israel’s actions or encouraging Houthi propaganda.

6. Direct Iranian intervention

• Iranian retaliation: If Israel’s actions against the Houthis are seen as targeting Iran’s strategic interests, Iran could escalate directly, perhaps through missile strikes or cyberattacks.
• US intervention: Direct Iranian intervention could lead to US intervention, especially if US assets or US allies in the region are threatened.

7. Unintended Consequences and Misjudgment

• Accidental clashes: Miscalculations or accidental targeting can drag neutral countries or international powers into the conflict, expanding its scope.
• Escalation into full-scale war: Continued tit-for-tat actions could lead to a larger regional conflict, involving multiple state and non-state actors.

Source: Robert Lansing Institute