How Will the Houthis Fall? 3 Developments That Could Make Real Change in Yemen

After the overthrow of the Assad regime in Syria, international attention shifted to the Houthis in Yemen. An American report asked, how can the fall of the Houthis happen? It pointed out that "real change in Yemen requires three major developments."

With the fall of the Assad regime in Syria and the defeat and increasing isolation of Hezbollah in Lebanon, attention is turning to the Houthis in Yemen. The Houthis are perhaps the most powerful remaining Iranian proxy force in the region, and they are the most active in their attacks on Israel and also on international shipping in the Red Sea.

According to a report by the American magazine "National Interest" - translated by "Yemeni Youth Net" - "With the escalation of the confrontation between the Houthis and Israel, and perhaps America as well, this is likely to raise questions about whether the Houthis in Sanaa will prove to be as weak as their former partner in Damascus."

Like the Assad regime, the Houthis are a corrupt organization that represents a narrow segment of the population, leaving the majority mired in poverty. This poverty stems not from war or sanctions but from systematic corruption, favoritism, and deliberate isolation, according to the magazine.

The corruption and brutality of the Houthis is like the Assad regime.

Regarding whether the Houthis could take advantage of regional instability and exploit it to their advantage, the report considered that “reforming state institutions is unreasonable, because their dysfunction is a deliberate choice to ensure that the group’s core supporters enjoy economic and social superiority.”

These regimes facilitate the plunder of the population through a common set of tools: bribes demanded by poorly paid officials, monopolistic sectors that benefit cronies, and rigged systems for importing goods, with exports playing a minor role in the devastated economies of Iran’s client states, according to the report.

High levels of corruption and exploitation have made both the Assad regime and the Houthis unpopular, forcing them to rely on brutal security apparatuses to maintain power, according to the American magazine, through indoctrination via media and education, portraying themselves as champions of national independence and anti-colonialism. The report considered that this “became less convincing as the suffering worsened and dependence on foreign patrons, especially Iran, increased.”

Despite the similarities in corruption and brutality. The American magazine presented the main differences between the Assad regime and the Houthis, noting that "the Houthi leadership is younger and more active than the aging cadre under Assad. Despite the passage of 10 years since the capture of Sanaa, the Houthis are still in the early stages of an extremist rebellion. In contrast, the Assad regime has turned into a stagnant, ideologically empty dynasty after fifty years in power."

Regarding the possible response to the challenge after the fall of control, the American magazine saw that "Houthi leaders may turn to guerrilla warfare tactics in mountainous areas instead of exile" and noted that "many senior Houthi leaders have rarely left Yemen, which may make them more inclined to resist until the end instead of seeking refuge abroad."

Will the Houthis stay long?

However, the Houthis’ long-term survival remains uncertain, according to the American magazine, as their regime faces a growing legitimacy crisis, cracks in its foundations are widening, the leadership increasingly relies on brutal violence to suppress dissent, and eventual collapse seems likely, but not necessarily imminent.

Decisive action by regional and international actors opposed to Houthi terrorism would hasten their downfall, the magazine reported. “Political, financial, and military pressure on the Houthis must be intensified, cutting off their ability to access humanitarian aid would significantly weaken their financial position,” it said.

Instead of propping up a regime that perpetuates terrorism and destabilizes the region—the Houthis, according to the report—the international community should devote resources to helping its victims and those trying to resist it, including Yemenis abroad and Yemeni forces fighting the Houthis.

The current crises facing Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Iran’s Quds Force make this a good moment to pressure the Houthis, and while they may have once drawn confidence from Tehran’s support, they may be reassessing that in light of recent events in Syria.

This may provide an opportunity to pressure the Houthis to halt their attacks in the Red Sea, according to the American magazine, but even this will only be a temporary truce, not a real solution to the long-term threat the Houthis pose to other countries in the region, not to mention their own subjects.

How will the fall of the Houthis happen?

This raises the question: How can the fall of the Houthis happen? - The American magazine saw - that real change in Yemen requires three main developments as follows: -

First, change requires an escalation of public anger over the grievances felt by the Yemeni people, which may be primarily related to economic conditions, but perhaps also to anger at the imposition of their sectarian views that conflict with the beliefs of the majority of the population.

Second, there is a need to lose support or backing from key elite constituencies, which may consist of Houthi bureaucrats or allied tribes on whom the Houthi regime relies to suppress any opposition to them.

Third, instability will lead to a rift within the leadership class, driven by external pressures on the group or internal power struggles; power struggles may arise organically within the dominant and secretive system, but they may be accelerated by sudden and significant events, such as the death or assassination of key figures within its leadership.

These factors combined could leave the Houthis in a state of chaos, unable to maintain their brutal grip on millions of Yemenis, which in turn could create momentum that the Houthi regime may find increasingly difficult to reverse, according to the American magazine.

How this process unfolds is not under anyone’s control, and certainly not under the control of any power outside Yemen. However, the Syrian experience suggests that sustained pressure and coordination with all powers will be more effective than trying to negotiate with a group regime devoted to internal repression and external aggression.

The Houthis, like Assad, will one day lose control, and Yemenis will remember who helped them in their time of need and who did not. It is vital to maintain military, political, and economic pressure. Denying the Houthis legitimacy and the ability to divert foreign aid is a key element of this effort, according to the American magazine.

The report concluded by saying, “Assad’s experience shows that such tyrants do not last forever and that investing in long-term diplomatic relations with them is a losing bet.”