US reports: Airstrikes are not enough to defeat the Houthis and will not replace the strength of ground forces.

US reports have stated that US airstrikes alone are not sufficient to defeat the Houthis in Yemen and will not replace the strength of ground forces. They assert that resolving the Houthi problem, despite their entanglement in broader regional and global issues, requires a local solution.

Foreign Policy magazine published a report by Eitan Danon, a former senior policy advisor at the US Treasury Department and an intelligence analyst specializing in Middle East affairs, in which he noted that nearly 18 months after the October 7 attack, the Middle East looks very different.

The report , translated by Yemen Youth Net, stated that amid these radical changes, the Houthis in Yemen are taking advantage of the vacuum created by the disintegration of the Assad regime in Syria and the weakening of Hezbollah in Lebanon, which now finds itself in the crosshairs of its former ally, the Syrian army.

With the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas collapsing, the Houthi threat has returned to the forefront. The Iran-aligned group claims to have attacked the US aircraft carrier Harry S. Truman with airstrikes and missiles, and the United States has launched a new wave of airstrikes against the group, which has vowed to escalate its attacks on international shipping.

According to the author, while the Houthis have close ties with Iran—and the Trump administration has threatened to hold Iran accountable for their attacks—they also cultivate a web of ties with Russia and China, further complicating matters.

"The United States, Israel, and their allied partners should attempt to counter the group's efforts to form international alliances, but they should understand that the Houthis are unlikely to retreat, let alone be expelled, easily," he added, noting that they have taken actions that further Tehran's regional ambitions because they share similar goals.

It's worth noting that in 2019, the Houthis targeted Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure, shutting down half of the country's oil production for two to three weeks. They also targeted the United Arab Emirates with drones and missiles believed to have been supplied by Iran.

Since the October 7 attack, the Houthis have launched more than 200 missiles and 170 drones at Israel, exploiting their unique strategic geographic location to significantly impact international security.

Their targeting of ships in the Bab al-Mandab Strait—through which approximately 30% of the world's container shipping passes—has disrupted global supply chains and international shipping routes. While Iran has watched Israel gradually weaken what it calls the Axis of Resistance, it has simultaneously strengthened its ties with its Western adversaries, most notably Russia.

In January, Tehran and Moscow signed a partnership treaty, strengthening their already strong cooperation, which included a Shahed drone production facility in Tatarstan to support Russia's war in Ukraine and linking the two countries' payment and settlement systems. The Houthis are likely to benefit from this cooperation.

Growing relationship with Russia and China

Unlike other Iranian proxies such as Hezbollah and Hamas, the Houthis are growing in strength and resilience. In March 2024, the group informed China and Russia that its ships could sail through the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea without being targeted, in exchange for political support in bodies such as the UN Security Council.

The author warned that in addition to this diplomatic support, the Houthis have also provided and received military and economic support from Russia and China.

According to the Wall Street Journal, two Houthi officials traveled to Moscow last August to discuss the purchase of $10 million worth of automatic weapons from Viktor Bout, the so-called "Merchant of Death" who was released by the United States in a 2022 prisoner swap.

During the trip, Houthi representatives, who also received targeting data from Russia for some missile launches, discussed the possibility of purchasing Kornet anti-tank missiles and anti-aircraft weapons.

These advanced conventional weapons could enhance the Houthis' ability to target international shipping and help the group's leader, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, fulfill his promise to strike maritime targets linked to Israel all the way to the Indian Ocean on their way to the Cape of Good Hope.

According to a former US special envoy to Yemen, Russia now has staff on the ground in Sanaa and plans to reopen its embassy in Aden this year.

With the fate of Russian bases in Syria still uncertain, and an agreement currently underway to build a Russian naval base on Sudan's Red Sea coast, growing military cooperation between Russia and the Houthis will allow Moscow to expand its influence in the region.

For their part, Houthi officials, starting in late November 2024, facilitated the travel of Yemenis to Russia, where they were forcibly sent to fight on the front lines in Ukraine.

While targeting Western shipping and trade, the Houthis benefit from illicit shipping and logistics services supported by Russia and China. Days before the Yemeni mercenaries' story broke, Russia secretly delivered grain from the occupied port of Sevastopol in Crimea to Yemen, according to Bellingcat.

Saeed al-Jamal, a Houthi financial facilitator based in Iran, has facilitated the smuggling of Iranian oil and provided financial facilities to Iran and its proxies through entities in China, according to multiple sanctions designations by the US Treasury Department.

Interestingly, one recent designation not only revealed that China-based Houthi operatives were facilitating the smuggling of weapons and dual-use components into Yemen, but also revealed that Al-Jamal was evading sanctions using cryptocurrencies, which is not surprising given his ties to Iran and the country’s deep expertise in digital assets.

Yemen is not an easy country to deal with. Ali Abdullah Saleh—who briefly allied with the Houthis after 22 years as president of Yemen, only to be ignominiously killed by them in 2017 after seeking to reconcile with Saudi Arabia—once likened ruling Yemen to “dancing on the heads of snakes.”

The country has long been a victim of its own difficult circumstances, from civil and tribal wars and secessionist movements, to its fight against al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, to its battle with famine and disease.

The Houthis' growing relations with China and Russia raise equally thorny and complex calculations among key players in the region, including Moscow itself.

If Yemen replaces Syria as the Russian military's next warm-water port in the Middle East, it could increase the risk of avoiding conflict between Israel and Russia, as happened in Syria during its civil war.

Israel and the United States have long been focused heavily on Iran, and both have struck Houthi military targets in Yemen, increasing the risk of unintended escalation if Russian advisors or forces increase their presence in the region.

Despite its growing ties with the Houthis, Russia is also forced to maintain positive relations with Saudi Arabia, particularly in the context of OPEC.

Saudi-Israeli normalization seems unlikely in the near term, especially if recent calls for the "resettlement" of Palestinians outside Gaza and Riyadh's responses are any indication.

However, the Houthis may be tempted to play the role of spoiler by targeting Saudi and/or Israeli interests, putting them at odds with Russia's efforts to maintain productive relations with both major regional powers.

The United States has reinvigorated its "maximum pressure" campaign, through which it has sought, unsuccessfully, to force Tehran to renegotiate or abandon the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action ( JCPOA ) altogether, and has asked Russia for assistance in negotiations with Iran.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have staked their economic transformation on massive investments in artificial intelligence with leading American companies, including data centers and related infrastructure. This gives the Houthis an entirely new set of potential targets.

Many critics of the JCPOA have pointed to its failure to curb Iranian support for terrorism and regional groups. However, in its desire to halt Iran's nuclear progress and its support for its proxies, the United States now finds itself seeking help from Russia, which supports both Iran and the Houthis—playing the role of arsonist and firefighter, some have noted.

The report stated that if diplomacy with Iran fails and the United States or Israel attacks Iran's nuclear program, the Houthis will almost certainly be part of Iran's asymmetric response, and Russia will have to decide whether it can afford to remain neutral.

He added, "As long as the Houthis remain committed to attacking civilian and military vessels in the region, the United States, Israel, and their partners must continue to destroy their command centers and weapons caches through targeted airstrikes and other means."

He stressed that "economic and military tools can exert some pressure on the Houthis, with the scope of targets expanding, given their growing ties with Russia and China."

He added, "But any solution to the Houthi problem, despite their entanglement in broader regional and global issues, requires a local solution. For nearly a decade, the Houthis have withstood a Saudi-led offensive to oust them, and they appear more keen on threatening global trade than addressing the horrific conditions they are exacerbating for those living under their rule, including famine, cholera, drinking water shortages, and economic decline."

Despite its unique geographic advantage among Iran's proxies, the group may also suffer painful setbacks as a result of its strategic miscalculations, as happened with Hamas on October 7, and Hezbollah's continued targeting of Israel with drones and missiles.

The Israeli security establishment has now "woke up" to a largely overlooked Yemeni theater. This could ultimately weaken the Houthis' grip on the country through a combination of air power and kinetic operations, opening the way for different political arrangements.

The author concluded his report by saying, "Until then, and in the absence of any change in ideology, the Houthi threat remains one that can be mitigated and managed, but cannot be completely eliminated."

Air strikes will not replace ground forces.

In this context, an American strategic military expert criticized the US campaign against the Houthis in Yemen, arguing that it has not yet succeeded. He emphasized that control is the primary goal of military strategy, and that airstrikes—no matter how violent—cannot replace the power of ground forces.

In an article published in the American magazine "The National Interest," James Holmes, a naval strategy expert at the Naval War College, questioned the Trump administration's strategy in the Red Sea and whether operations against the Houthis would be decisive, given the White House's intensification of the air and missile campaign.

U.S. Navy warships and fighter/attack aircraft carriers, assisted by Air Force fighters—and, on occasion, bombers—strike key locations in Yemen almost constantly.

The author said in his article , which was translated by "Yemeni Youth Net," that the Trump administration is playing an offensive role, a departure from the more defensive stance favored by the Biden administration, under which naval task forces defended themselves while striving to protect commercial shipping from Houthi missiles and drones.

He added, "Under the previous presidency, US and coalition forces only launched attacks intermittently, sending warplanes and cruise missiles to strike coastal targets. The current strategy considers a good offense the best defense of sea lanes."

Although the author praised Trump's strategy as an improvement on Biden's intermittent strategy, he suggested it would likely be inconclusive.

"Skepticism is the wisest attitude toward any military endeavor, not just anti-Houthi operations. Skepticism is the essence of the scientific mindset. Ultimately, any theory of military victory is just that, a theory, and is only worthy of acceptance if it withstands attempts to 'refute' it," he said.

In this sense, Holmes said, the Red Sea is a laboratory for what works and what doesn't in contemporary naval and air warfare. "Let's look at the air campaign as an experiment, and use our results to plan strategies and operations in more pressing battlefields like the Western Pacific," he said.

Purely cumulative campaign

The author argues that Trump's bombing campaign in Yemen is purely cumulative. A cumulative campaign consists of numerous tactical engagements unrelated to each other in time or geography. A combatant waging a cumulative campaign carries out limited attacks in each location, and individual efforts do not necessarily coincide in time.

He added, "One attack is not dependent on another, nor does it lead to the next. No single tactical action—such as bombing a factory or sinking a cargo ship—delivers a single decisive blow to the enemy. But, taken together, many small operations can lead to a major outcome."

According to the author, cumulative operations wear down the enemy, and in the process can make a decisive difference in a close military confrontation. They complement sequential operations, but they do not replace them.