Western reports: With the fall of Assad, the Iranian axis is disintegrating and Tehran's allies in the region are weak and on the verge of collapse

The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria could reshuffle the geopolitical cards in the Middle East. With the dismantling of the “Axis of Resistance,” Iran finds itself more isolated internationally than ever before, forcing it to reconsider its security policy and interventions in the region.

Iran was considered the main ally of Bashar al-Assad, but now all its cards have been scattered and its influence has declined dramatically after its influence in the region has greatly diminished. The pictures showing the Tehran embassy in Damascus being looted by a group of Syrian oppositionists after the attack they launched on the capital, Damascus, on Sunday, constituted a new political turning point and an important turning point.

The New York Times reported that the Iranian axis is disintegrating with the fall of the Assad regime, as Tehran's main allies in the region have become weak or on the verge of collapse. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has fled his country, and Hezbollah has been severely damaged by the conflict with Israel.

She explained that weakening Hezbollah would reverberate far beyond Lebanon. The organization sent fighters to help Mr. Assad during the Syrian civil war and helped train other Iranian-backed groups, including Houthi fighters from Yemen.

Iraq and Yemen should not be given up

As Iran’s regional influence weakens, Middle East studies professor Steven Heydemann explains that the Houthis may become more strategically important, or Iran may shift toward a diplomatic approach, improving relations with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which would reduce the Houthis’ role in Iran’s strategy.

He says - according to an analysis published by the London-based newspaper Al-Araby Al-Jadeed in its English version - that "with Iran's deterrence capacity weakened, it may begin to rethink its regional strategy, and "ultimately conclude that its best option may be to seek to possess nuclear weapons as a deterrent."

Although it is still unclear how Iranian leaders will respond to the challenges of Assad’s fall and the weakening of Hezbollah in the long term, an article published by the American Enterprise Institute by Nicholas Karl suggests that they will give priority in the short term to shifting the center of gravity of the axis of resistance eastward to Iraq and Yemen.

Victory of the Syrian Revolution Fuels the Burning Flame of Struggle, and Yemenis Prepare for Salvation

| Yemen Youth Report pic.twitter.com/p1dIQw32so

— Yemen Youth TV Channel (@TVyemenshabab) December 10, 2024

According to the article, Iran now relies more than ever on the ability of its proxies and partners to deter the United States and Israel, and Iran will likely spend the coming months and years trying to deepen its control over these groups and provide them with increasingly advanced offensive capabilities.

Iran is also likely to explore how to prevent efforts to dislodge its proxies and partners from Iraq and Yemen. Iranian leaders have almost certainly learned from their experiences watching the Islamic State advance on Mosul in June 2014 and the Syrian opposition’s recent advance on Damascus that they must keep their proxies and partners safe at home.

The United States should exploit Iran’s current weakness to push back the axis of resistance in Iraq and Yemen. This would include increasing support for Iraqi leaders who want to see their country independent of Iranian influence and subversion, not abandoning them. It would also include undermining the Houthis’ desire to continue attacks on international shipping rather than launching intermittent airstrikes on their capabilities.

On the other hand, the author warns that giving up Iraq and Yemen would give Iran and its axis of resistance the space and time to recover. Tehran and its allies may have collapsed. But the United States and its allies and partners in the region should exploit the positive momentum created by Assad’s fall.

An analysis by the American Middle East Institute saw that the fall of Bashar al-Assad would destabilize the geopolitical balance in the Middle East, noting that on the regional level, this constitutes another strong blow to Iran after the beheading and weakening of Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The Assad regime in Syria has been an ally of Iran since the 1980s and has served as a bridge and essential partner in building and supporting the Lebanese militant group. With the fall of Assad, Iran not only loses its strategic presence in Syria, but also its ability to support a heavily armed proxy in neighboring Lebanon.

According to the analysis, it is important to watch how Iran will deal with this latest loss. On the one hand, Tehran may continue its failed strategy of supporting militias in Iraq and Yemen; on the other hand, it signals that it is open to a new approach, including negotiating with regional powers and the incoming administration of President-elect Donald Trump. The Gulf states and Turkey are working to persuade Iran to go in the latter direction.

The axis of resistance no longer exists

For many years, Iran has used Syria as a transit point to deliver logistical equipment and weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon, which has enabled it to maintain the “axis of resistance” and possess security deterrence capabilities outside its geographical borders. Now, however, all its cards have been scattered and its influence has declined dramatically, after its impact in the region has greatly diminished.

"The platform that Syria represented, which allowed Iran to reach the Mediterranean, has collapsed and no longer exists," Jonathan Perrot, a historian and Iranian affairs specialist at the Eutopia Institute in Brussels, told FRANCE 24.

He added: "The axis of resistance as we knew it no longer exists. The same goes for Hezbollah, which disappeared after its power completely vanished as a result of the Israeli intervention in Lebanon. Even Bashar al-Assad's Syria no longer exists."

He continued: "Most of the forces that formed the axis of resistance no longer exist. The Houthis? They are also far from Tehran and have their own agendas. As for the Iraqi militias, they refused to intervene in Syria to help Bashar al-Assad."

In this regard, David Rigolet Rose, editor-in-chief of the Strategic Orient magazine and an associate researcher at the Institute for International and Strategic Research in Paris, considered that the explosion of the “Axis of Resistance” is one of the direct consequences of the October 7, 2023 attacks and the Israeli strategy.

He explained that if Bashar's regime had fallen, it was also because of the weakness of Iran and its partners, most notably Hezbollah. Usually, Hezbollah is the one fighting to defend Iranian interests and protect Bashar al-Assad.

He added: "But Hezbollah was forced to return many of its fighters to Lebanon to confront Israel, so that Assad would remain as a naked king. What added to his problems was Russia's inability to save him because of the war it is waging in Ukraine."

“Iran today finds itself in an unprecedented state of weakness,” Jonathan Piro concluded. “The security cordon it had previously imposed around itself is beginning to erode and erode at the level of its borders. Tehran will be forced to reconsider its security policy. In these circumstances, it may accelerate the manufacture of nuclear weapons in order to protect its territory and ensure the survival and continuity of its regime.”