What are the potential risks of the Houthis' ambitions to the stability of Yemen and the Red Sea region?

A Western intelligence report warned of the potential dangers of the Houthis’ ambitions and their transformation into an increasingly military player in the Red Sea region, as the group’s ability to exploit regional conflicts to achieve political and military gains has raised concerns about internal stability in Yemen and broader regional security.

According to a report published by the Geopolitical Monitor intelligence website (based in Canada) - translated by "Yemeni Youth Net" - the Houthis' military power has expanded with significant support from Iran, which has provided them with advanced missile and drone technology. Israeli airstrikes against Houthi positions have also allowed the group to portray itself as a direct opponent of Israel and a key player in the broader Middle East conflict. Rather than weakening them, these strikes have given the Houthis more justification to rally support and recruit additional fighters.

At the same time, he added, the internationally recognized government remains weak and fragmented, struggling with internal power struggles and a lack of coordinated military resistance. The Southern Transitional Council, which controls parts of southern Yemen, has been unable to coordinate effectively with other anti-Houthi factions, leaving the government vulnerable to collapse.

According to the report, this ongoing political division provides the Houthis with opportunities to expand their influence to the south, and target cities of strategic and economic importance such as Marib and Taiz.

He warned that if they continue their regional expansion, they may exercise more control over Yemen's vital energy resources, which would strengthen their position as the dominant power in the country and increase their bargaining power in any future peace negotiations.

Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping lanes have dramatically escalated geopolitical tensions, prompting a military and economic response from the United States and its allies. Initially, the Houthis claimed their attacks were directed at Israeli-linked vessels, but their increasingly indiscriminate targeting of commercial vessels has led to wider regional turmoil.

Their ability to threaten vital maritime trade routes, including those used to transport oil and goods, has forced Western powers to respond. The establishment of multinational naval patrols aims to deter further attacks and protect vital shipping lanes, but challenges remain in neutralizing the Houthi threat entirely.

Western responses so far have been primarily defensive, with limited offensive operations against Houthi-held areas. While airstrikes have targeted missile launch sites, radar systems and storage facilities, they have not significantly affected the Houthis’ core military capabilities.

Saudi Arabia's reluctance to engage in renewed large-scale military intervention also strengthens their position, making expansion into southern Yemen increasingly possible.

But these ambitions carry potential risks. Pushing too far south could lead to renewed intervention by regional players such as the United Arab Emirates, whose interests lie in securing maritime trade routes along the Arabian Sea and controlling Yemen’s ports.

In addition, a successful Houthi expansion could create security vacuums that groups such as Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and the Islamic State could exploit, further complicating Yemen’s already fragile security environment, the report said.