Expected scenarios between Trump and Iran?!

The return of US President Trump to the White House represents a historic precedent in the American political scene. Trump is not the first president to obtain two presidential terms, but he is the first president to obtain a second term after leaving at the end of the first term.

His first presidential term was marked by many confrontational positions and violent decisions he made, especially withdrawing from the nuclear agreement with Iran, and then closing his first presidential term with the assassination of the number one man inside Iran, "Qassem Soleimani", the de facto Iranian ruler of four Arab capitals. The end of Trump's presidential term was the beginning of the actual confrontation between Trump and Iranian influence, but Trump soon lost the elections to the Democrats and left the White House. Now, with his return again, the question begins: Will Trump start his second term from where he left off at the end of the first term...?

When we talk about President Trump’s upcoming strategy towards Iran, and try to imagine the scenario that he will use to manage the crisis with Iran once he enters the White House, we must bear in mind that Trump is not an ordinary American president, but rather a stubborn, combative, and arrogant president of a special kind. We can notice the huge number of European statements that are wary of the man’s personality, and some consider him an existential threat to the entire European continent..!

Trump is a businessman who is obsessed with deals, does not accept half-measures, and does not hesitate to take any adventure. These are the most prominent characteristics of his personality, which has a strong and direct impact on his policies, positions, and decisions.

When we try to read the next stage in the nature of the relationship between Trump and Iran, it is obvious to remember the saying: President Trump will not return under any circumstances to the 2015 nuclear agreement as Iran requires. This agreement, which was signed by his predecessor President Obama before the end of his second presidential term, was objected to by Trump upon his ascension to the presidency, in its entirety and in detail, and he decided to withdraw from it completely in May 2018 by a unilateral decision. It is illogical that he would come seven years later and change his position after the Iranian nuclear program has made great strides forward, and has today become a matter of great international concern..!!

This development will most likely make him more rigid, intransigent and determined to dismantle and destroy this nuclear program. And if not through war, then through conditions, dictates and imposing concessions from a position of strength, pressure and threats. These are concessions that, if Iran submits to them, may reach the point of surrender and ceasing to continue developing its nuclear program. This will further shake its image and decline its status regionally and internationally.

Overall, its political and security repercussions will be devastating for it. Therefore, I believe that it will not accept the implementation of any unfair or impossible American conditions and dictates, because that would mean its political suicide, and would burn the last of its important cards that it has been bargaining with for many years, and would be a huge and limitless loss for everything it has been betting on and building its expectations on.

On the other hand, it is likely that Trump will then shift from the peaceful option he started. And in order not to contradict himself before the world, he will return to the military option, which I imagine his plans are ready for implementation and awaiting an American political decision to approve them. Here, Trump may go to activate military force against Iran, either alone or with the participation of Israel, in the event that its participation has a military or strategic impact of another kind.

The final decision on this matter will be left to Trump, because such a violent American military strike, expected against Iran, will primarily aim to destroy whatever components of its nuclear program can be destroyed, and other vital strategic targets. This plan may be accompanied by an attempt to influence the Iranian interior at the heart of the Iranian regime through scenarios and arrangements that may also be ready, whether through the forces opposing the regime at home, or through other American and Israeli plans and scenarios.

Considering Trump's strong and confrontational personality, it is not unlikely that he will adopt a violent strategy to eliminate this threat to America's security and the security of its regional partners, which consists of directly "cutting off the head of the Iranian snake." This will automatically be followed by the end of the threat of the remaining arms in this region, which are no longer numerous after they were cut off in Lebanon and Syria, and their movement was paralyzed and almost disabled in Iraq under pressure from the Biden administration following the influential Israeli military moves in the region recently. This forced it to retreat and stop, and lost its effectiveness as an Iranian pressure card.

Trump knows the truth about what he is facing with Iran in the coming period, and what motivates him more is his certainty that Iran is now in its weakest military, political and moral state, and at the peak of its declining role and diminishing influence on the regional and international levels.

What Iran is suffering today, from a terrible feeling of shock, frustration, and despair, is unprecedented, after its heavy and successive losses in Lebanon and Syria, the collapse of its regional project and the loss of all its bets that it has been fighting for for decades. Iran's external defeat comes with a state of increasing congestion inside Iran, which may also be in an unprecedented state of tension, discontent, and boiling, due to the regime's policies that have cost it dearly and ultimately led it to these frustrating and unfortunate results.

The Iranian internal rift, the ambiguity of its political situation, and what the society’s reactions might be are also another card among the cards on which Trump is placing his bets and building his future decisions in dealing with Iran.

Ultimately, Trump realizes that he has a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, and that he would be wrong to waste it and let it slip away. For all of this, his next period will be fraught with many major events and violent shocks that could take the entire Middle East behind them into the unknown. President Trump wants to make history, and his upcoming war on Iran could be one of these doors open to him.