Russian researcher asks: How will events develop in the Middle East in 2025?

Russian expert Ilya Vedeneyev believes that the radical and sudden changes that the Middle East witnessed at the end of 2024 require a comprehensive review of expectations regarding the developments that the region may witness in the new year.

In an article published in the Izvestia newspaper, Vedeneyev, a professor at the Financial University of the Russian Federation, said that the year 2024 was no exception in the Middle East, a region characterized by turmoil, tragic events, and rapid developments, which makes it difficult for any observer from outside to predict what will happen there.

The writer considered that the shape of the region in the near future is primarily linked to the development of events in Syria and the scenarios for resolving the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, noting that there is a close connection between the two arenas.

Syria developments

According to the writer, the situation seemed stable on the Syrian scene, before it exploded overnight and power came into the hands of the armed opposition factions, led by the Syrian National Army and Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham.

Despite the announcement by the new authorities in Syria, represented by the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, Ahmed al-Sharaa, of their intention to maintain relations with Russia, the Russian presence in Syria has become questionable, especially in light of the loyalty of the new authorities in Damascus to Turkey, and what this means in terms of influence that allows Ankara to pressure Russia in the military bases file, according to the writer.

He added that the recent events in Syria opened the door to many speculations, including the possibility of establishing a new Russian naval base in eastern Libya, which Russian military experts denied, pointing to the possibility of the Russian fleet being present in the Mediterranean Sea without military bases as was the case during the Soviet era.

Power sharing in Syria

The writer added that Israel, in return, was able to expand its "area of control" in southern Syria, specifically in the Golan Heights, which threatens to divide the country and portends the failure of the new government to maintain power.

Expected truce between Israel and Hamas

On the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the writer said that Israel and Hamas are close to reaching a new settlement, coinciding with the blows received by the axis of resistance and the truce agreement between Israel and Lebanon.

The writer ruled out that next year would witness a final solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, but he expected that the level of tension in the region would decrease after the signing of the armistice agreements.

Source: Al Jazeera Net