Including targeting Houthi leaders.. American institute presents 3 strategic steps in the Red Sea

An American institute believes that the United States should deal with the Houthi threat in the Red Sea as part of the strategic competition and not just a local or regional challenge. It pointed out the need to expand the scope of attacks in Yemen by targeting Houthi leaders and presented three strategic steps.

According to a report by the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington (AGSIW) , in recent months, as the United States lifted restrictions on Ukrainian strikes inside Russian territory, Russia responded by increasing its support for the Houthis and the group’s attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea.

The report added - translated by Yemen Youth Net - "Russia has already provided satellite tracking data for commercial ships to the Houthis through Iranian intermediaries, and is now threatening to provide the group with advanced anti-ship missiles."

“Such a move would enable the Houthis to pose a greater threat, perhaps even endangering U.S. warships patrolling the waters,” said the report by the American Institute, written by Gregory Johnsen, a former member of the Panel of Experts of the UN Security Council’s Yemen Sanctions Committee (2016-2018).

Russia's message in Yemen

According to the American Institute, Russia's message is clear: "If the United States continues to escalate in Ukraine, Russia will escalate in the Red Sea," and each conflict has proven more difficult than expected for the countries involved.

In Ukraine, Russia’s initial plan to launch a lightning strike to decapitate the government has foundered in a grueling war now in its fourth year. In the Red Sea, the United States has proven unable to deter the Houthis or weaken them enough to stop their attacks on commercial shipping.

The site it chose was Djibouti, right next to a US base. So what in 2008 was a US victory – getting China to cooperate and join the international community in fighting a global threat – turned nearly a decade later into a strategic disadvantage, providing China with a foothold in the Red Sea.

“Since the emergence of the Houthi threat in the Red Sea, the United States has treated the Houthis as a Middle Eastern issue, part of the Iranian problem set, and something closer to the counterterrorism wars of the past than to the strategic competition of the present,” the American Institute said.

Washington's strategy against the Houthis

The American Institute considered that "the Houthis - as Russia appears - are linked to the war in Eastern Europe and the security challenge in the Pacific. Therefore, the US response should be similarly precise and thoughtful to develop alliances and impose costs on opponents."

The American Institute presented three broad steps that are part of the US strategy against the Houthis in the Red Sea, as follows:

First, the United States should dramatically increase the engagement of allies and partners. The free flow of commerce is a global good that all countries in the international community must play a role in preserving. The United States should request additional naval support from its NATO allies to help monitor the Red Sea and provide a more robust shield for commercial shipping.

The United States should also encourage allies and non-NATO partners to increase patrols in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Arabian Sea to stop Iranian arms shipments to the Houthis.

Regional partners, such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman, must also play a role in stopping the overland shipment of missile components to the Houthis and isolating the group in the region. Egypt in particular is paying a heavy economic cost due to the decline in maritime traffic through the Suez Canal.

Second, the United States should raise the cost of doing business with the Houthis. This includes imposing increased sanctions on Russia, though the impact of these sanctions may be more reputational than economic.

For example, if the United States can show how Russian support and assistance is increasing the number and intensity of Houthi attacks on commercial shipping, which are impacting economies in Africa and South America, it will be in a better position to isolate Russia diplomatically.

The more desperate Russia becomes in Ukraine, the more willing it will be to cooperate with outcast groups. The United States must ensure that it—Moscow—pays a high reputational price for such engagements.

Likewise, the United States must explain the costs of disrupting trade to China, which relies heavily on Middle Eastern oil and has a struggling economy. No country has benefited more from global free trade over the past quarter-century than China.

If China continues to encourage Russia from the sidelines, the United States could demonstrate how costly the actions of the Russian-backed Houthis could be for China, according to the American Institute.

Third ,The United States must increase the cost of continuing attacks on the Houthis. Over the past year, it has largely avoided large-scale retaliation against the Houthis. The United States, the United Kingdom, and most recently Israel have struck inside Yemen.

But these strikes have largely targeted Houthi infrastructure and weapons caches, and the United States should increase its offensive strikes and make clear to the Houthis that leaders responsible for attacks in the Red Sea can and will be targeted.

The Houthi challenge did not appear overnight and will not disappear quickly, but by taking a broader view of the problem and engaging more actors, the United States will be better positioned to end the threat.