What is Iran's hidden hand in Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea?

A report by the Strategist magazine of the Australian Lowy Institute spoke about Iran's hidden hand in the Red Sea, which helps the Houthi militias in Yemen target commercial ships.

The report , translated by "Yemeni Youth Net", said that it is not entirely clear how the Houthis and the Iranians work together, but stopping the threat to shipping requires more than shooting down incoming missiles and extends to disabling the intelligence and targeting system.

He stressed that the multinational presence in the Red Sea has failed to suppress Houthi attacks from Yemen on commercial ships in the Red Sea, as evidenced by the open source assessment.

Data collected by the IMF-Portwatch project shows a dramatic drop in the number of ships passing through the Suez Canal, from around 73 commercial vessels each day in mid-December last year to a daily average of around 33 today. Suez Canal revenues have also fallen sharply as longer routes around the Cape of Good Hope are preferred.

Coalition efforts—one led by the United States, the other by a separate European Union operation—have at times reduced the pace of Houthi attacks. Destroying missile stockpiles and launch sites, along with their associated infrastructure, has had a temporary effect. But Houthi attacks have continued nonetheless, demonstrating the resilience built during the Saudi and Emirati offensive since 2014.

The latest strike has raised fears of a major oil spill from a damaged Greek-flagged ship, and the Houthis have said British, American and Israeli ships, as well as those visiting Israeli ports, will be targeted.

In practice, many “innocent” ships have been attacked, including Chinese vessels and “Black Fleet” tankers carrying Russian oil. But while the Houthis may not be able to correctly identify ships, they are able to detect and locate ships as they move along international shipping lanes, and have not been overly concerned about misidentification.

Reports from captains of ships under attack almost always indicate the presence of small boats in the area prior to the attacks. A key element in the Houthis’ ability to maintain an up-to-date maritime intelligence picture appears to have been information provided by Iran.

Prior to the Houthi anti-shipping operation, Saudi authorities suspected the Iranian vessel, the MV Saviz, of being a commercial vessel gathering intelligence and resupplying the Houthis on shore with small work boats.

Behshad could supplement this information with visual reports from small boats—either launched using Behshad's own turrets or local fishing boats co-opted to participate in the intelligence-gathering effort.

In February, reports emerged of a major cyberattack targeting the Behshad. The ship lingered in the area for a few weeks after that, and by April had moved to an anchorage off the port of Bandar Abbas, near the southern Iranian city, where it remains.

However, Houthi attacks have continued unabated. This suggests that the suspected intelligence-gathering techniques used by the Behshad are now being carried out by other, perhaps smaller, vessels that rely on anonymity to avoid interdiction.

Iran makes extensive use of small boats closer to home, often sending speedboats on long-range voyages disguised as fishermen or smugglers into the territorial waters of neighboring countries. The radar range of smaller vessels, if used in the Red Sea, would not be as great as that of the Behshad.

But smaller vessels can use their anonymity to loiter near international shipping lanes, where they can also use visual observations. Reports from captains of ships under attack almost always record the presence of small boats in the area prior to the attacks.

It took months for Behshad’s suspected role in the attacks on ships to be exposed. The challenge for coalition partners, often burdened by complex decision-making processes, will be to respond again, but with greater urgency. While Iran and its allies are militarily weaker than their adversaries, they have the advantage of being able to make tactical decisions more quickly.