"Confused and Disoriented" .. New York Times: Iran reeling after losing Syria

The Iranian government faced a wave of popular anger over the billions it spent and the Iranian blood that was shed to support the Assad regime.

In the days following Iran’s sudden and unexpected ouster as the dominant power in Syria, criticism has come from unexpected corners, including conservatives, flowing freely on television channels and talk shows, in social media posts and virtual seminars attended by thousands of Iranians, and appearing on the front pages of newspapers daily.

Former MP Hashmatollah Falahatpisheh said in a social media post that Iranians should celebrate the fall of Iran’s long-time ally, President Bashar al-Assad, adding: “No one will be able to waste Iran’s dollars to maintain a spider’s web anymore.”

Opponents of the government have long expressed anger at the money Iran has sent across the Middle East, and that sentiment now appears to have spread. Even some who fought on behalf of their government in Syria or lost family members in the civil war there are now wondering whether it was worth it. Some have pointed out that the Assad regime was not the only loser to emerge from the uprising.

Ebrahim Mottaki, a professor of international relations at the University of Tehran, said on a talk show that Iran has declined from being a regional power to just another country.

Some have questioned the basis of Iran's strategy over the past decades to establish itself as a dominant regional power to confront Israel and its main patron, the United States: Tehran's support for a group of armed groups in the Middle East that it calls the Axis of Resistance.

Mohammad Shariati Dehghan, Iran's former representative to the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, attacked his government in a front-page opinion piece in the Hamihan newspaper, saying that Assad's defeat revealed that Iran's strategy was misguided and "built on weak foundations."

Shariati Dehghan called for a new approach that prioritizes building alliances with countries instead of supporting armed groups, and transferring money and resources back to the Iranian people.

This bold public debate is quite unusual, given that for years Iranian leaders have portrayed their support for Syria and allied armed groups fighting Israel as one of the non-negotiable principles of the Islamic Revolution and essential to national security.

“The discussion about Syria is taking place at all levels of society, not just in the media and social media, but in daily interactions everywhere,” Hassan Shamshadi, a prominent analyst close to the government who until last year served as head of the Iran-Syria Joint Chamber of Commerce, said in a telephone interview from Tehran. “People are asking: Why did we spend all this money there? What did we achieve? What is our justification now that it is all over?”

Shamshadi said that although the shape of future relations between Iran and Syria is now uncertain, a strategic partnership built over four decades is now history, adding that the unfettered access that Iran had long enjoyed to supply routes in Syria to armed groups across the region with weapons and other materials has also ended.

Iran's official response has been contradictory, with President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi seeking to distance themselves from events next door.

The president and foreign minister said the Syrian people have the right to determine their political future, and Iran's strategic vice president, Mohammad Javad Zarif, said his country "is ready to establish good relations with the future Syrian government, and we have always stood by the Syrian people."

But Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, took a tougher tone in his first public address on events in Syria, blaming the United States and Israel for Assad’s downfall, describing the rebels who ousted him as “aggressors” with competing motives who serve their masters, and also hinting at Turkey’s support for some of the rebels in Syria.

“By God’s blessing, the occupied territories in Syria will be liberated by the brave youth of Syria,” Khamenei said, adding, “There is no doubt that this will happen,” and predicting that “resistance” will spread widely in the region, and Iran will grow stronger.

But Khamenei’s rhetoric was at odds with the reality on the ground in Syria, where the army quickly collapsed as the rebels advanced, and Syrians — young and old, men and women — celebrated the fall of a tyrannical ruler by dancing in the streets and chanting, “Freedom.”

Hamas, for which Iran and its ally Hezbollah in Lebanon have taken risks, issued a statement congratulating the Syrian rebels on their victory and declaring that it stands with the Syrian people.

Khamenei appeared to be upset by the public criticism, saying the comments were a “crime” because they created fear among people.

Within hours, Iran's judiciary announced a criminal investigation into a list of prominent figures and media organizations that led the criticism, including Falahatpisheh, a former MP who revealed that Syria's debt to Iran amounted to about $30 billion.

Syria has served as Iran’s central base in the region for more than 40 years, and its access to land, ports and airports has been so unfettered that a senior military commander once described Syria as a province of Iran.

Iran has taken control of military bases, missile factories, tunnels and warehouses that served the supply chain for its network of armed groups.

From Syria, Iran has smuggled weapons, money and logistical support to Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and armed groups in the Israeli-occupied West Bank and Iraq.

“Syria was the cornerstone of Iran’s regional plan, to encircle Israel with a belt of fire,” said Matthew Levitt, director of the Counterterrorism Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “The axis of resistance was a three-legged stool: Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah, but it no longer exists.”

Levitt said Iran was also economically dependent on Syria, and its purchases of Iranian crude and refined oil, despite US sanctions, were helping Tehran pay for its military operations in the region.

Five Iranian officials said that after the fall of Syria, several of their colleagues privately revealed that Iran had lost everything in just 11 days, and the officials said the government was still “confused” and “disoriented” and trying to find a way forward with Syria.

Rahman Ghahramanpour, a political analyst in Tehran, stressed that the priority now is to ensure that Syria does not turn into a base against Iran and a platform for attacking its interests in Iraq or Lebanon.

“The public reckoning that has erupted over Iran’s behavior in Syria cannot be contained, and no official justification will mitigate the severe blow,” he added.

Source: New York Times