Israel and the Houthis... deterrence and gambling

The current regional transformations have re-imposed the Houthi group as a major player in the equation of the Israeli-Iranian conflict, and also the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. While the successive setbacks suffered by the axis of Islamic resistance have determined Israel’s superiority and hegemony over the region, it has escalated the role of the Houthi group as a military force leading the battles to support the resistance in the Gaza Strip, which has necessitated managing the conflict between the two parties according to the equation of establishing a deterrence strategy for Israel, and continuing the adventure of the battles to support the resistance for the group.

Over the course of a year of its war on the Gaza Strip, Yemen, a geography from which threats to the depths of Israel emanate, has created a military and security dilemma for Israel, putting the Israeli deterrence doctrine to the test.

With the fragmentation of the resistance axis and the disengagement of the unity of the resistance arenas supporting Gaza, after its defeat of Hezbollah, Israel failed to disengage from targeting its depth by the Houthi group, including the escalation of its operations on the maritime front, which it leads, from the continuation of Israel’s war in the Gaza Strip, as the implementation of two attacks targeting Yemen, in July and September (2024), confirmed Israel’s failure to establish any level of deterrence against the group, as it continued its attacks against Israel at a controlled pace. Also, the recent fall of the Syrian front, an arena of resistance, although it enabled Israel to secure its borders, did not disrupt the group’s ability to support the resistance, but rather escalated its operations against Israel in a striking manner.

Israel builds its aggressive discourse that legitimizes its trans-geographic violations, not based on the results of its war on the Palestinians, but rather by exploiting its historical injustice as a permanent target for an enemy lying in wait for it, which enables it to establish a deterrence strategy against its opponents and confirm its regional hegemony. Targeting the Houthi group has become a strategic goal for Israel that necessitates planning a comprehensive strategy that targets its military infrastructure, economic resources, and human resources, including placing the group’s leaders as potential targets.

However, achieving this requires preparation for its long battle, starting with searching for a political cover that would give it the legitimacy to target the group, and then strike Yemen (not just now, but permanently), to expanding its partnership with its allies to diversify the means of targeting the group, which comes from establishing a narrative of separating its war on the Gaza Strip from the group’s operations that target its depth, by escalating the economic consequences of its attacks in the waterways as a danger that goes beyond Israel’s security to threatening the interests of the world, which requires criminalizing the group, by classifying it as a terrorist organization by its Western allies, in addition to formulating a multipolar military intervention to deter the group, considering Israel moving to stop its threats on behalf of the international community.

On the military and intelligence levels, Israel is counting on its Western allies, most notably its American ally. As Israel plans future attacks on Yemen, including expanding its list of military and economic targets, it is counting on the American (and of course British) military force stationed in the waterways to target the group’s sites and double its attacks with the levels of threat that Israel faces.

Although the series of Israeli wars on the forces of the Islamic resistance axes have largely disrupted the channels of mutual military support, which were a vital source for the Houthi group, the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad’s regime has doubled the military challenges it faces, by striking the main military supply line, which passed from its Iranian ally through Syria.

These facts then caused the group to lose important military and logistical resources to intensify its operations against Israel and its allies. Although it balances the management of its operations between carrying out individual attacks against Israel and involving Iraqi resistance factions loyal to Iran, the reflection of the current Syrian situation on the Iraqi scene has produced additional restrictions on the activity of armed factions, which doubles the pressure on the group.

In addition, changing the political equation in Syria does not only mean losing the diplomatic and political privileges of the only Arab regime that recognized its authority, but also the rise of a ruling Islamic force in Syria, which may give its local opponents the readiness to arrange a battle against it or exploit its exhaustion as a result of the continued targeting of it by Israel and its American ally.

If the cost of four Israeli attacks on areas controlled by the group caused costly economic losses for it, exceeding $300 million, the economic consequences after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime doubled its economic crisis, as Assad’s Syria constituted a major pillar in the group’s cross-border economy, as well as its local economy.

In addition to Syria being a channel for managing the flow of money, oil and investments from Iran, and its network of allies in the region, including the Syrian regime, and also the group’s leaders, the Syrian regime remained an important economic ally for the group, granting it facilities to manage commercial investments, and also import, as Syrian companies were one of the largest dominators of the Yemeni markets in the areas under the group’s control.

On the sidelines of the war in the Gaza Strip, and one of its most important repercussions at the present time, the battle of deterrence and counter-response is being established on the Yemeni front, which may lead to the continuation of the Houthi group’s adventure in supporting the resistance, and then escalating its attacks deep inside Israel, while Israel and its American ally may expand their attacks on Yemen, or arrange a ground intervention in the future. Whatever the next scenario, what is certain here is that Yemen may be at a crossroads, which means its transformation into an international and regional front in a multi-polar conflict, or pushing towards resuming a destructive war between local parties.

*Quoted from Al-Araby Al-Jadeed