News
Image Description

Mustafa Nagy

The dilemma of any settlement now in Yemen

Opinions| 17 December, 2024 - 7:56 PM

If Al Houthi gets involved in any political process being prepared at this difficult time and in light of the developments in Syria and Lebanon and the decline of Iranian influence, he will be putting a noose around his neck and committing political and military suicide.

The Houthis have been stubborn at all previous political turns and have spoiled any peace project or roadmap. With their stubbornness, they were able to raise the ceiling of their demands and practice fruitful blackmail. But now they will do the opposite for fear of any military operation and under the influence of the collapse of the Iranian axis.

Because any political process now, no matter how marginal and formal their concessions are, will not be viewed as being in a Yemeni-Yemeni context, but rather will be understood as weakness on their part. This will turn against them the resentful in the territories they control and will whet the appetite of the forces opposing them in the government ranks to pounce on Sana’a and Hodeidah, according to the Houthis’ estimation of confusion and weakness.

Rather, any political process in Yemen at this time and before Trump's arrival is a final diplomatic prize for the Biden era and an ill-considered adventure before the arrival of Trump, whose approach towards Yemen no one knows exactly.

I do not want to pay attention to the potential losses to the legitimate government that affect its legal status and result from a peace process that is completed at the last minute without fulfilling guarantees and without knowing the outcome of the situation in Syria and Lebanon and Iran’s reaction after it absorbs the shock.

I see that any agreement that can be concluded now, especially if it stipulates a ceasefire, is, on the one hand, a free service to the regional powers. It is also a confirmation of the state of division in Yemen. An agreement of this kind does not only affect the safety of Yemen, but also the stability of every part and area of influence in Yemen for the powers controlling the ground.

Each bloc will find itself facing challenges that open the door to conflicts with social, economic and political forces within the framework of which they are at the heart of the challenges of the reconstruction phase.

*Quoted from the writer's account on the "X" platform

| Keywords: Houthis

Related Articles

[ The writings and opinions express the opinion of their authors and do not, in any way, represent the opinion of the Yemen Shabab Net administration ]
All rights reserved to YemenShabab 2024