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Increased mortality in winter: a global phenomenon that puzzles scientists

Information and science| 27 January, 2025 - 12:32 AM

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In a mysterious global phenomenon, it is noted that a much greater number of people die in the winter months compared to the rest of the year. For example, in the winter of 2021-2022, 13,000 people died in the United Kingdom more than in other seasons.

In the United States from 2011 to 2016, 8 to 12 percent more people died in winter months than in non-winter months, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The same observation has been made in both hemispheres, even in places where winters are mild.

Scientists' confusion

Scientists aren't entirely sure of the answer to this question, according to National Geographic. There's one clear factor contributing to the increase in deaths in winter: seasonal viruses, with viruses sometimes accounting for about half of all deaths.

But the latter alone cannot explain the whole phenomenon. Some of the answer seems to lie in the heart, the magazine says. It quotes Kristi Eby, a professor of global health at the University of Washington, who says that “half of the (excess) deaths in winter are due to cardiovascular causes,” including strokes and heart attacks.

"This is the pattern," she adds. "The question is why?" Physiologist William Keating of the London Medical School has conducted laboratory experiments that have found that exposure to cold may be dangerous to the heart.

Such findings have influenced UK policies to fund insulation and other home improvements, which have already led to lower deaths among the elderly. But that may not be the whole story. Temperatures still can’t explain all the excess deaths.

Winter cold is not the final answer.

In the past decade, some researchers have made observations that complicate the answer even more. Cold temperatures may not be the main factor driving excess deaths in winter, at least not in all places around the world.

Winter means not only less heat but also less sunlight, which means less vitamin D production. Some people may eat more or different foods, stop exercising, and drink more alcohol.

Even the air is likely to be different, with some parts of the world having much worse air pollution in winter, and in places where pollution is lower indoor humidity levels are still radically different.

For Ebi, these other seasonal factors deserve further exploration. Perhaps there are physiological changes, besides temperature, that could be linked to excess mortality in winter.

(New Arab)

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