The Houthis are a foreign terrorist organization.. What does this mean for Yemen?

In an expected move, US President Donald Trump has redesignated the Houthi group as a foreign terrorist organization, reversing his predecessor Joe Biden's decision to remove them from the list in 2021.

This decision lays the legal foundation for broader action against this Iran-aligned armed group, as part of a comprehensive strategy to deal with Tehran during Trump’s second term.

"America does not fight to liberate peoples on their behalf."

The Houthis did not immediately respond to Trump’s decision to redesignate them as a foreign terrorist organization, despite the serious potential consequences of such a decision.

This silence is unusual on their part, as they are accustomed to responding quickly to declared positions towards them. On the other hand, the internationally recognized Yemeni government welcomed Trump’s decision, and expressed its thanks to him for what it described as a “historic” decision.

The head of the Presidential Leadership Council, Rashad Al-Alimi, wrote in a post on the “X” platform, saying: “The Yemenis have waited a long time; especially those who lost their lives, were tortured, were unjustly arrested, had their homes destroyed, and were displaced to the corners of the earth - they waited for justice and punishment of the Houthi criminality with the terrorist classification decision, as an entry point to establishing peace and stability in Yemen and the region.”

The reactions of elites, political circles and the people in Yemen to Trump’s decision varied, as some expressed their fears that this American decision would hinder the possibility of the Houthis returning to the path of negotiations and a political settlement of the Yemeni conflict, according to a roadmap that Saudi Arabia had worked to complete in consultation with the United Nations and other international mediators.

This trend stems from the Houthis’ crossing of what many world capitals consider “red lines,” which has made them a global challenge.

There are four reasons behind all this change in the international position, or the Western position in particular:

• First, the Houthi attacks on international shipping lanes in the Red Sea, the Arabian Sea, the Gulf of Aden, and the Bab al-Mandab Strait have caused severe damage to the global economy and to Yemen itself.

For example, these attacks have increased insurance costs for ships heading to Yemen, and have negatively affected the Suez Canal in Egypt, with losses amounting to about seven billion dollars, according to some official Egyptian sources.

• Second, the Houthis have targeted Tel Aviv more than once, which is something Israel cannot tolerate.
• Third, the attack on Aramco: The Houthis are believed to have been involved in the attack on the Aramco oil complex in Saudi Arabia, which is of strategic importance to global oil supplies. They also threaten to return to similar attacks if economic pressure intensifies.
• Fourth, rejecting political solutions: The Houthis’ intransigence towards any political solution to the conflict in Yemen has turned the country into a failed state, with the Yemeni people suffering from “the largest humanitarian crisis in the world,” according to the United Nations.

In addition, the Houthis have become a threat to global security and peace in a region that cannot tolerate further unrest.

Most worrying to the West, the Houthis not only operate as an outlawed armed group, but are believed to be fighting as a proxy for Tehran, using Iranian-developed and -used weapons.

A prominent Yemeni politician who had close ties to the Houthis asserts that “the group that emerged from the most backward, illiterate and miserable regions of Yemen cannot develop or use ballistic missiles or drones.” This source, whose identity is being withheld by Al-Majalla, asserts that “Iranian military experts and Lebanese Hezbollah are the ones who were and still are behind the launch of every missile or drone from inside Yemeni territory.”

It seems clear that the rules of the "game" with the Houthis will be different this time, if not that the game itself is over!

All possibilities are possible

The question being asked today on a large scale is what the Yemenis will have to do if the authority of this “group” is actually defeated in an important country whose geopolitical location overlooks four strategic shipping lanes.

The answer, at least until this moment, is not clearly known or on the table, and perhaps not important at this stage in the eyes of the world and even the region that is likely to be negatively affected after this scenario, if it happens.

Strategically, from the perspective of the national security of the West and even for Russia, Yemen as a country and a location is not in the neck of the world like Syria nor on the borders and boundaries of Europe, but it could be so from a distance if it turns into a new Somalia, with piracy and armed gangs running rampant in this region, and this is very likely in the view of many experts and observers.

Another question is: Is there a political or military force in Yemen that is a candidate to fill the potential vacuum in the event of the fall of the Houthi hegemony as a harmful Iranian arm not only to the West and Israel, but also in Southwest Asia adjacent to East Africa, which is of strategic economic importance at least for Turkey and China in light of their promising investments there?

When this question is urgently posed to several Yemeni leaders residing in different Arab and foreign capitals, the answers come almost in agreement that “the Islah Party - with its Islamic orientation - does not want to bear responsibility alone” and even feels that it is unacceptable even if Islah here is not the Muslim Brotherhood. So who is the alternative to Islah?

Another answer is that “the General People’s Congress has become more than a congress” after the killing of its late founder, President Ali Abdullah Saleh.

Yemen is not without leaders, but each of them cannot work alone. Rather, they need a political and military lever, otherwise everyone will become victims of tribal and militia adventures with unforeseen consequences.

Perhaps this is what occupies the minds of the political and social elites today in Yemen and even in neighboring countries, whether in the Arabian Peninsula and the Gulf or Egypt and the Horn of Africa.

It is noteworthy that all of these countries did not allow the legitimate Yemeni government or even the Yemeni political parties to become a major active party in the regional conflict with the Houthi party, which is strongly allied with Iran.

In any case, all options remain possible and possibilities are open on more than one path and context according to the development of the situation, on the ground and politically inside Yemen or at the regional and global level.

Source: BBC Arabic