International report: The West lacks an integrated policy to deal with Houthi attacks and its strategy must be re-evaluated

A report issued by a Western think tank stressed that the continued Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea require Western capitals to re-evaluate their strategy towards the Houthis, considering that operations aimed at protecting commercial shipping from Houthi militants still lack the desired success.

The UK-based International Institute for Strategic Studies has criticised what it sees as the absence of a coherent political strategy to deal with the Houthis, particularly given Western governments’ involvement in limited military operations against them. Instead of trying to contain their military ambitions, the international community remains focused on the humanitarian situation in Yemen and on normalising its relations with the group.

After twelve months of continued attacks on Western shipping, it is clear that the current response by the international community has failed to achieve its stated goals. Despite their military superiority, the United States and its allies have been unable to seriously degrade the Houthis’ ability to launch attacks, nor to seriously limit their ability to resupply their arsenals.

At the same time, the presence of international naval missions has not reassured most major Western shipping lines enough to return to the Red Sea.

The International Institute for Strategic Studies has analysed the impact of the Royal Navy and allied missions in the fight against the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels. In a paper titled “Navigating Troubled Waters: The Houthi Campaign in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden”, the institute said that while many lives were saved by the British and US intervention – under Operation Sentinel – it should not be considered a success because of the attacks that have continued throughout the year and shipping has not returned to pre-Houthi levels.

The IISS said that during Operation Prosperity Guardian - which aimed to "ensure freedom of navigation" and "promote regional security and prosperity" - 150 interceptions were carried out between November 2023 and August 2024.

Of the 309 targets of the weapons systems involved, 229 were unmanned aerial vehicles, 43 were unmanned surface vessels, 30 were ballistic missiles, and others. “A number of attacks were thwarted, and the interceptions would have contributed to protecting freedom of navigation, as envisaged,” the report said. “However, attacks have continued at a steady rate since the interceptions began.”

The report added that “the total number of attacks per month barely decreased, from 28 in December 2023 to 27 in August 2024, with numbers rising in all other months during this period except July 2024. Therefore, Operations Aspides and Guardian of Prosperity should not be judged as successful in this regard.”

Of the 292 attempted attacks between November 2023 and August 2024, only 48 were successful — a figure the report described as “consistently low.” This could be a failure for the Houthis, the report added, but some analysts suggest the attacks, which had no clear target, were simply a show of force and could still have significant global implications.

War risk insurance premiums for merchant ships have soared, diverting thousands around Africa. Despite this, the IISS said the global economic impact was milder than expected – with no significant increases in consumer costs and inflation from early November 2024 – but had a significant impact on Red Sea coastal states.