American website: 5 reasons to believe Harris will defeat Trump in the presidential election

The American news website "Daily Beast" said that there are 5 reasons that lead it to believe that Democratic Party candidate Kamala Harris will taste the bitterness of defeat for her Republican opponent Donald Trump in the US presidential elections that began today, Tuesday.

The site's correspondent, Harry Lambert, based his reasons in his report on publicly available data, which we summarize as follows:

1- Look outside the swing states.

On Saturday night, a “shocking” poll by respected Iowa pollsters suggested Harris would win by 3 percentage points in the state, which Trump won over incumbent President Joe Biden in 2020.

The shift is not limited to Iowa, according to the Daily Beast, but is also evident in Kansas, where another recent Kansas Speaks poll showed Harris performing much better than Biden in the 2020 election, who trailed Trump by nearly 15 percentage points.

2- Women are the ones who will win.

If Harris wins, it will be women who will lead her to victory. She leads by 5 points among women in the Kansas Speaks poll, while Trump leads by 15 points among men.

Anne Selzer, the architect of the Des Moines Register Iowa Poll, points to a wave of support for pro-choice Iowa Democrats by women in Iowa.

3- Trump's gains are greater in Democratic states

Trump appears to have made some gains since 2020, particularly among nonwhite and younger voters. But those gains may not be as surprising as they seemed earlier in the campaign.

There is evidence, from YouGov polling, that black support for the Democratic Party is holding up relatively well; they favor Democrats by about 70 points, down from 82 points in 2020, but not as much as national polls have shown in the past two weeks.

Trump’s gains appear to be concentrated in large Democratic states with more diverse (and younger) populations, such as New York and California. His gains in solidly Democratic states of New Mexico and Virginia will not be enough to swing them to the Republicans.

There's Arizona, where Trump appears to be doing about 3 points better than he did in 2020.

4- Polls over-correct numbers in Trump’s favor, as happened in 2020.

There are plenty of polls showing Harris and Trump neck-and-neck this year, according to pollster Nate Silver, but pollsters appear to be manipulating the data to make it appear close.

This practice is perhaps most severe in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Nevada, but less so in Arizona, Georgia, and Michigan.

The Daily Beast asks: In whose favor are pollsters manipulating the results? Lambert, the site's special correspondent, answers that exaggerating the numbers works in Trump's favor, as happened in 2020.

5- The race for Congress is blue, not red.

Unlike the 2020 election, voters this time favor Democrats over Republicans to win the House, but only by a small margin. Analysts tend to tilt the race for Congress in their favor in tight swing districts.

Source: Daily Beast