Why did Trump rush to reclassify the Houthis as a terrorist organization... and what is the future of the group?

US President Donald Trump on Wednesday redesignated Yemen’s Houthi militia as a foreign terrorist organization and said he would direct the US Agency for International Development to end its relationship with entities that have made payments to the group.

The White House stated in a statement the reasons for this decision, referring to the fact that the Houthi activities "threaten the security of American civilians and employees in the Middle East, as well as our closest regional partners and the stability of global trade."

This decision came only two days after Trump assumed his presidential duties on January 20, beginning his second presidential term.

Classifying the Houthi group as a terrorist group is not new in American policy. Trump himself had previously placed it on the list of terrorist groups at the end of his first presidential term in 2020, and then his successor, Joe Biden, cancelled this classification to facilitate the delivery of humanitarian aid to Yemen.

Reasons for classification

David Des Roches, a professor of strategic studies at the Pentagon's National Defense University, explains that in the early days of Trump's presidency, the Houthis were a regional issue, but now they have become a global issue.

De Roche added - in an interview with Al Jazeera Net - that the classification decision was inevitable, as a result of "the operations carried out by the Houthi group against international maritime passages. Regardless of the history of Trump and the Houthis, this classification came as a result of the group's actions against maritime shipping, and what is new is that it came more quickly" only.

Second, warmer US-Saudi relations under the Trump administration will make Washington’s approach toward the Houthis more aggressive.

Based on these factors, Bahjat believes that “the potential negotiations between Tehran and Washington will have little impact on the Houthis, who enjoy some independence from Tehran, especially since the group has developed some local military capabilities.”

What does the new classification mean?

The new designation could take weeks to take effect, and if it succeeds, anyone who deals with or is affiliated with the Houthis would risk prosecution by the United States.

“Unlike Specially Designated Global Terrorists, FTO restrictions even include indirect forms of communication or meetings with the group, which could be subject to sanctions if deemed supportive,” said Yemen expert Mohammed al-Basha.

"This expanded and more punitive framework not only cuts off financial lifelines, but also significantly undermines the group's operational capabilities, international mobility and legitimacy," he told AFP.

According to Elizabeth Kendall, director of Girton College at the University of Cambridge, Trump intends to demonstrate “a policy of zero tolerance for Houthi aggression, regardless of the potential consequences for civilians.”

"The debate is not about whether the FTO designation is merited. Most Western analysts agree that it is. The debate is about whether it will put pressure on the Houthis and ultimately help stop their attacks. That is less clear," Kendall told AFP.

For his part, Abdulghani Al-Iryani, a researcher at the Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies, said that the new classification could paralyze the peace process if it meant that negotiators were unable to deal with the Houthis, considering that this "kills any possibility" for peace talks.

"At least (in the past), there was a chance to start over with a proper structure for negotiations. But now, we can't even talk to them," he told AFP.

Raising the cost on the Houthis

For more than a year, the "Prosperity Guardian" coalition has launched about a thousand raids on Houthi sites in Yemen, in an attempt to force the group to stop its operations in the Red Sea and against Israel.

Adnan Al-Jabrni, a journalist specializing in military affairs and the Houthis, believes that the American strikes did not succeed in weakening the Houthis’ offensive capabilities, because “the Americans have not yet understood the way the Houthi group operates.”

Al-Jabrini added - in an interview with Al Jazeera Net - that Trump will raise the cost on the Houthis, and decide to strike more important targets or leaders of the group, noting that the Houthis, in return, realize this and are preparing to change their tactics and security protocols with regard to protecting the main leaders.

Over the past period, Israel has launched several attacks on Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen, but it has mostly targeted civilian infrastructure such as Hodeidah ports and oil tanks, as well as Sanaa International Airport and power plants.

Al Jazeera Net quoted an informed Yemeni source as saying that the American vision towards the Houthis has changed since their involvement in the Red Sea attacks, and that Washington’s desire to strike the group has increased, but it realizes that the participation of regional and local actors is important.

On Friday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio made a phone call to Yemeni Prime Minister Ahmed Awad bin Mubarak and discussed cooperation to stop Houthi militia attacks in the region.

A statement issued by US State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce said that Rubio discussed with Bin Mubarak the importance of ending the Houthi threat to maritime security in the Red Sea and surrounding waterways, and "their shared concerns about the unlawful detentions by the Houthis of diplomatic, UN and NGO personnel."

According to the statement, Rubio referred to the executive order issued by US President Donald Trump to reclassify the Houthis as a foreign terrorist organization as a decisive step towards limiting the group’s activities, and stressed his aspiration to continue supporting the government of the Republic of Yemen in confronting the Houthis.

Nasser Al-Tawil, a professor of political science at Sana'a University, believes that the internal Yemeni complexities and the Arab coalition's military intervention to support the legitimate government in the past, as well as, to a greater extent, the Red Sea attacks and the mutual strikes between the Houthis and Israel, have contributed to making the war in Yemen a complex war with multiple, and often overlapping, paths.

He added - in an interview with Al Jazeera Net - that "the military preparations of the Yemeni parties involved in the conflict, the repercussions of the attacks in the Red Sea, Israel's desire to restore its reputation towards the Houthis, and the same goes for the US Central Command and the deep desire of the Arab coalition countries to crush the Houthis militarily; all of these factors indicate that Yemen is heading towards a new round of war looming on the horizon."

If the American decision falls within the framework of a "comprehensive strategy," it could also be a "historic opportunity" for the Yemeni government to "impose a national project that strengthens the pillars of peace and stability," according to what researcher Ibrahim Jalal of the Malcolm H. Kerr-Carnegie Middle East Center said on his Twitter account.

Source: Yemen Youth Net + Al Jazeera + AFP