Analysts: Houthi and Red Sea crisis requires comprehensive approach to solve Yemen problem

Analysts believe that the crisis of the Houthi presence in Yemen, which has caused instability in the Red Sea and Horn of Africa for more than a year, requires a forward-looking approach to solve the Yemeni problem by the international community.

A lengthy analysis by the American Middle East Institute (MEI) entitled “Four Years of Transformations That Reshaped the Middle East” by a number of analysts and researchers, part of which focused on the Houthis and the Red Sea crisis, and raised a central question: What will the second Trump administration face in the region in 2025 compared to what it left behind in 2021?

Analysts at the American Institute - translated by "Yemeni Youth Net" - considered that the Red Sea crisis requires a forward-looking approach to solve the Yemeni problem. They warned of the dangers of neglecting the Red Sea region and the most turbulent Horn of Africa and the pivotal role played by the Houthis in this turmoil.

Houthis are the center of instability

Merit Mabrouk, director of the Egypt and Horn of Africa Program at the American Institute, said that a quick look at the current unrest in the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa might lead observers to believe that the region is suddenly plunging into turmoil.

“The Houthis in Yemen are at the center of this instability, with the Iran-backed militia attacking ships along one of the world’s most important sea lanes,” Merritt said.

“The Houthis, with Iranian support, have used their military position on the Red Sea coast in northern Yemen to threaten international shipping in the Red Sea, Bab al-Mandab, and the Gulf of Aden, and to threaten Israel with offensive weapons, making the group a major source of regional and internal Yemeni tensions and instability,” Gerald Feierstein, director of the program on the Arabian Peninsula, said in a statement.

Feierstein, who previously served as ambassador to Yemen, suggested that Iran’s weakened power would give Riyadh new leverage to secure Tehran’s cooperation in ending the Yemeni civil war. “Riyadh’s efforts to resolve the conflict have been hampered by the Gaza war and the Houthi response, and before that the Saudis and their Gulf partners were cautious about challenging the Houthis,” he noted.

This caution is driven by concerns that a strong stance by Riyadh, according to Feierstein, in rejecting the group’s naval attacks could be deeply unpopular at home and be seen as pro-Israel, and could lead to renewed Houthi attacks against the Saudis and the GCC states more broadly.

Therefore, he believes that the next Trump administration will need to balance the deepening divisions between Israel and the Gulf states, while during the first period there was a general consensus among these key partners of the United States, according to the former American diplomat in Yemen.

The failure of the international community in Yemen

Researcher Nadwa Al-Dosari considered that the Houthis’ control over parts of Yemen is, in part, a direct result of the international community’s response, which was reactive, relying on containment strategies that failed to achieve results.

“Diplomacy alone has failed to hold the Houthis accountable for their violent actions, underscoring the weakness the Houthis have repeatedly exploited to consolidate their control. US and UK airstrikes against Houthi targets have also failed, and the group has continued to escalate its attacks,” she said.

Al-Dosari noted that the Houthis have consistently demonstrated their ability to use negotiations as a mechanism for stalling and violence as a means of extracting concessions from the Yemeni government, the Saudis, and the international community. This pattern, which has been evident since the beginning of the war, has allowed the group to secure tactical advantages.

The UN roadmap announced in December 2023 has also been undermined by Houthi actions, Al-Dosari said, including unprecedented attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and Israel. These actions have prompted retaliatory strikes by the US, UK and Israel, further complicating the conflict.

She noted that the Houthi attacks are ostensibly aimed at pressuring Israel over the Gaza war. But in reality, these attacks reflect the Houthis’ ambitions to establish themselves as a regional power. Internally, they have established an authoritarian, theocratic regime characterized by systematic repression and indoctrination.

Over the past year, they have intensified recruitment, with the Houthis announcing that they have recruited 370,000 new fighters, and in the summer of 2024 alone, 1.1 million children graduated from their ideological training camps, confirming their commitment to militarizing society.

Iran's most capable proxy

Externally, the Houthis are emerging as Iran’s most capable regional proxy, especially in light of the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria and the severe weakness of Hezbollah in Lebanon. Their growing military capabilities, including advanced weaponry supplied by Iran, enable them to threaten international shipping, according to Al-Dosari.

The Houthis are also working to create their own “axis of disruption,” according to Al-Dosari, forming alliances with terrorist groups such as Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, Al-Shabaab in Somalia, and the Islamic State. In addition, their emerging cooperation with Russia, including recruiting fighters for Ukraine and supporting attacks in the Red Sea, further highlights their expanding global connections.

According to Al-Dosari, this positions the Houthis not only as a local threat, but as a destabilizing force across the wider region, undermining Western interests and exporting their revolutionary model. “The international community’s blindness to these realities has emboldened the Houthis since 2014 and continues to do so today, allowing them to reshape the regional landscape in line with their ideological ambitions,” she noted.

To deal with the complexities of the conflict in Yemen, the international community, and now the incoming Trump administration, must learn from past mistakes, according to Al-Dosari, who said, “The Houthis’ rise to power was driven by short-term, reactive strategies that failed to address the group’s broader ambitions.”

“This moment presents an opportunity for the United States to adopt a forward-looking strategic approach that prioritizes long-term solutions over crisis management,” she concluded.