From the fall of Assad to the economic crisis.. the Iranian regime faces difficult challenges internally and externally

Iran has begun to outline its foreign and domestic policy for the coming year after the "setbacks" it suffered in 2024, especially after the fall of its ally Bashar al-Assad in Syria and the heavy losses suffered by Hezbollah in Lebanon, and in light of the tense economic and social situation at the domestic level in the country.

After years of supporting the Assad regime in Syria, and Iran’s massive investment of money and blood to establish a reliable “Arab ally” in the “axis of resistance,” Tehran has watched the Assad regime collapse and its influence in Syria end, with Iran’s Supreme Leader accusing Israel and the United States of plotting to overthrow Assad.

But with time, Iran has slowly begun to overcome the shock of Assad’s fall, and the political establishment in Tehran is trying to find a new strategy for its foreign and domestic policies, in an attempt to amend its bad luck in 2024. How do Iran’s leaders plan to enter the new year? And what challenges will their plans face?

Externally: Fears of Israeli escalation

After studying the reasons for the strategic setback that Iran suffered regionally and the collapse of the “Axis of Resistance” that was a fundamental part of its defensive strategy, fears are growing that these setbacks may provide an opportunity for Israel to target Iranian territory again, according to informed Iranian sources who spoke to “Arabi Post.”

In this regard, an Iranian politician close to the decision-making circles in Tehran, who preferred not to be named, told Arabi Post, “There are great fears within the Iranian establishment that what happened in Syria may encourage Netanyahu, in cooperation with his friend Trump, to strike the Iranian nuclear program to completely eliminate Iran, as they imagine.”

However, an Arabi Post source indicated that Tehran has purchased several air defense systems from Russia over the past few months, but it still needs to update its conventional weapons.

Financial challenges hinder armament

But at the same time, Iran's economic situation increases the obstacles facing it in strengthening its weapons internally. The same source told "Arabi Post": "Even if Russia and China agree to sell advanced weapons to Iran, the money needed to purchase these weapons will remain a major obstacle for the country, especially with the need to provide Hezbollah with money to restore its health."

Speaking of Hezbollah in Lebanon, which has entered into a fragile truce with Israel, the Iranian politician close to the political establishment says: “Hezbollah alone needs nearly $10 billion to rebuild southern Lebanon and restore its strength, and Iran must contribute a lot of money to this process, otherwise Hezbollah’s affairs will get worse, not to mention supplying the Houthis with advanced weapons and shipping methods for these weapons, which require a lot of money.”

According to Iranian sources, Tehran now relies heavily on the Houthis in Yemen to bolster its deterrence against Israel. But the commanders of the Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps saw an urgent need to supply the Houthis with advanced weapons to strengthen their position against Israel, which has recently begun launching attacks on the Tehran-backed Houthi group in Yemen.

But this process costs Iran a lot of logistical and security costs to ensure that the weapons reach Yemen safely.

According to informed Iranian sources who spoke to Arabi Post, the most positive issue regarding the axis of resistance is the steadfastness of the Houthis and their work with Iranian military leaders to strengthen their power. Other than that, all the other points mentioned in the experts’ reports are “catastrophic,” according to the political source from Khamenei’s office.

In his recent meeting with officials and advisers, Khamenei discussed the situation of Shiite armed factions close to Iran in Iraq.

According to Iranian sources familiar with the meeting, those present told Khamenei that the IRGC was deeply concerned about the reported US demands that the Iraqi government dissolve the Popular Mobilization Forces. According to the sources, Khamenei asked officials to move immediately to strengthen Iranian influence in Iraq in an attempt to contain the collapse of the axis of resistance, but without clashing with the Iraqi government.

Iranian sources indicated that Khamenei suggested starting work on opening communications with the Iraqi politician and Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr in order to prepare for the upcoming parliamentary elections in Iraq, and urged the Iraqi armed factions not to be drawn into conflicts, and to stop their attacks against Israel.

Externally: A more conciliatory policy

After discussing the reports with the Supreme Leader, Iranian experts presented Khamenei with recommendations for Iran to pursue a more conciliatory policy in the coming period with the United States and the West on the one hand, and the Gulf and Arab states on the other.

According to Iranian sources familiar with the matter, experts suggested to Khamenei that Iran enter into direct negotiations with Trump’s team after he takes office, in order to reach a deal to ease economic sanctions on Iran and ensure that no military conflict breaks out between Tehran and Washington or Israel, while reassuring Washington that Tehran is not seeking to possess a nuclear weapon and making some concessions.

Regarding Iran’s regional policy, those present at Khamenei’s meeting suggested that Tehran should exploit and build on the tangible success in its relations with Saudi Arabia, in addition to strengthening its relations with Egypt and Jordan in order to confront Turkish influence, especially since many Arab and Gulf countries are concerned about the Turkish-backed Hayat Tahrir al-Sham coming to power in Syria.

Internally: Calm is required

As for domestic policy in Iran, according to informed Iranian sources, some of Khamenei’s moderate advisors have called on the Supreme Leader to ease social restrictions in order to prevent any social protests from breaking out at the present time.

In this regard, political analyst close to decision-making circles in Tehran, Rasoul Babazadeh, told Arabi Post: “There is a trend within the political establishment in Tehran, especially from the moderate camp in Khamenei’s office and his advisors, towards reducing social restrictions to ensure that the situation does not explode internally and be exploited by external forces.”

Rasoul Babazadeh added to "Arabi Post": "The Supreme National Security Council stopped the implementation of the new hijab law despite pressure from hardliners, and the Supreme Council for Cyberspace lifted the ban on applications such as WhatsApp and Google Play."

Expert and political activist Ramin Majeed believes that the Iranian leadership is taking all these matters into consideration more seriously after losing Syria.

“The doctrine that the Supreme Leader and the military leaders of the Revolutionary Guards repeatedly spoke about was that supporting external parties and providing huge sums of money to Assad was aimed at preventing enemies from reaching Iranian territory. Now the axis has collapsed and Israel has struck deep inside Iran, and this doctrine has collapsed. All of this could push Iranians, who are suffering from economic tragedies and power outages, to take to the streets,” he told Arabi Post.

“2024 was a catastrophic year for Iran, and 2025 could be even more difficult and harsh,” said the moderate Iranian politician, who is close to decision-making circles in Tehran. “Between facing regional losses, the biggest of which is the loss of Syria, and facing hardliners at home who oppose negotiations with the West or easing social restrictions, the Pezeshkian government will face a tough test.”

The spokesman also predicted: “Amid the current circumstances and challenges facing Iran, it is expected that the leadership will adopt some flexibility on many internal and external issues. The political establishment in Iran has the ability to adapt its strategy to the new dynamics regarding ensuring its national security, and this happened before when it concluded the nuclear agreement with the West in 2015.”

Source: Arabi Post