Agency: Continued Houthi threat, regional tensions may pave the way for expanded coalition

Devastating Israeli military operations against Iran's regional proxies have weakened the Islamic Republic's ability to dominate, but Yemen's Tehran-backed Houthi rebels remain a thorn in the Jewish state's side, analysts say.

According to Agence France-Presse, with "the Palestinian Hamas movement and the Lebanese Hezbollah suffering massive blows after more than a year of war, and the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, the Houthis have become the most pressing threat."

The Houthis control most parts of Yemen, including the capital, Sanaa, and have proven themselves willing to attack Israel with missiles and drones, although they pose a limited military threat to the Hebrew state.

The Houthi threat, its far-reaching and destabilizing impact in the Middle East, and Yemen's strategic location along a major international shipping route complicate any potential Israeli response, especially if taken unilaterally, analysts say.

“Fighting the Houthis is a difficult task for Israel for several reasons, most notably the distance that does not allow for repeated strikes and the lack of intelligence on the group,” Michael Horowitz, head of intelligence for the Middle East geopolitical consultancy Le Peak, told AFP.

The Houthis, like Hezbollah, launched attacks against Israel in solidarity with the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, following the war between Israel and Hamas that broke out on October 7, 2023.

Horowitz said he expected Israel to adopt a strategy similar to the one it adopted against Hezbollah by eliminating prominent Houthi leaders and disrupting the smuggling routes used by the group, as it did in Lebanon and Syria.

But he added, "There is no guarantee that this will restore deterrence."

Despite the limited damage, thanks to the activation of advanced missile defense systems in Israel, the almost daily Houthi attacks have greatly disrupted the lives of civilians in the Hebrew state.

Sirens sound frequently in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv, the two most densely populated areas, forcing tens of thousands of residents to rush to shelters, often in the middle of the night.

While most of the missiles and drones launched from Yemen are intercepted, a rocket attack earlier this month injured 16 people in Tel Aviv, the Israeli military and emergency services said.

Harassment and threat

Over the past few months, the Israeli Air Force has carried out raids on Houthi targets in Yemen, including Sanaa International Airport.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed that his country would continue to “cut off the terrorist arm of the Iranian axis of evil,” while Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz vowed to “hunt down all Houthi leaders.”

The United States, Israel's most prominent ally, launched strikes against the Houthis to prevent them from carrying out attacks on ships passing through the Red Sea.

The latest of these strikes was on Tuesday, when the Pentagon announced that US forces had struck Houthi targets in Sanaa, which were used to attack US warships and commercial vessels.

Yoel Guzansky, a political analyst at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University, questioned the extent of Israel's success in its campaign against the Yemeni rebels.

"The Houthis are still the only ones attacking Israel on a daily basis, and this is not an easy problem to solve," he said.

"There is no magic solution," he added, because the Gulf states, which have also suffered from Houthi attacks, fear escalation, making Israel cautious in its response.

Menachem Merhavi, a researcher at the Truman Institute at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, noted that the Houthis are “a source of annoyance and threat.”

Although they pose a “limited” threat to Israel, they have caused significant disruption to global maritime trade, he said.

According to Merhavi, this could mean that a joint response is possible, especially after US President-elect Donald Trump officially takes office.

Expanded alliance

During his previous term, Trump brokered agreements to normalize relations between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan, known as the Abraham Accords.

Analysts say the ongoing Houthi threat, coupled with ongoing regional tensions, could pave the way for an expanded coalition. “It’s definitely possible,” Merhavi said.

“Iran has been so weakened and exposed that I think that makes an agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia more likely, especially if there is some kind of ceasefire in Gaza,” he added.

But Mark Dubowitz, CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, who leads a Washington-based think tank, said Iran and its proxies were weakened but not completely out of the game.

He noted that Tehran is “skilled at replenishing its proxy networks” and may accelerate the development of its nuclear weapons to use as a “deterrent” against Israel and the United States.

Source: AFP