Were Israeli strikes on the Houthis in Yemen a preparatory test for a major attack on Iran?

The recent large-scale Israeli operation against targets in Yemen took several weeks to plan, but it does not indicate that Israeli leaders have ignored what they see as Israel’s greatest threat — Iran, according to the American website Al-Monitor .

On December 19, at 2:30 a.m., dozens of Israeli Air Force fighter jets, loaded with fuel and one-ton bombs, took off for Yemen, more than 1,120 miles away.

Their flight path was along the Red Sea coast, overtaking a ballistic missile launched by Houthi rebels from Yemen toward Israel at the same time.

As the warplanes were dropping their bombs, the warhead of the missile, which the Houthis had supplied with Iran, fell on an empty school building in a Tel Aviv suburb, destroying it.

“This is the first time Israeli citizens have seen what happens when a heavy ballistic missile hits a civilian target,” a source in the Israeli Home Front Command told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity.

The Israeli attack was the third in the past six months against Yemen in response to about 400 missiles and drones that Israel accuses the Houthis of launching at it.

The pilots dropped about 60 bombs on power stations and fuel depots, hitting the Yemeni capital Sanaa for the first time as well as the Red Sea ports of Hodeidah and Ras Issa. The attack caused widespread power outages across the country.

“They are learning the consequences that could come to those who attack Israel,” a senior Israeli security source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity, while acknowledging the difficulty of deterring the group.

"There have been between 150,000 and 300,000 deaths in the civil war. You cannot threaten them economically because they are used to living in poverty, and they have no place to go. This quarrel could go on for a long time," he added.

Threat of escalation of the conflict

For its part, the American Associated Press said that a series of intensive Israeli air strikes in Yemen on Thursday threatens to escalate the conflict with the Iranian-backed Houthis, whose attacks on the Red Sea passage have greatly affected global shipping.

The agency explained in a report that the Houthis have so far avoided the same level of intensive military strikes that targeted the Palestinian Hamas movement and the Lebanese Hezbollah, which are members of the "axis of resistance" that Tehran describes.

According to the report, the strikes on the two power stations are expected to exacerbate the electricity crisis facing Sanaa, where those who are able to operate gas generators or obtain electricity from private sector providers rely on the city’s long-deteriorating infrastructure.

“About a quarter of Sanaa – especially shops, stores and commercial facilities – will face immediate and severe disruption,” said Mohammed Al-Basha, a Yemen analyst. “In a city already suffering from a deep economic crisis, 2025 is expected to be an exceptional challenge.”

The Houthi-held port city of Hodeidah, 145 kilometres (90 miles) southwest of Sanaa, has been a key conduit for food shipments to Yemen as the decade-long war drags on. There have also long been suspicions that weapons from Iran are being funneled through the port.

Israeli Defense Minister Yisrael Katz said: “I suggest to the Houthi leaders that they see, understand and remember: Whoever raises a hand against the State of Israel, his hand will be cut off. Whoever harms us, we will make him harmed sevenfold.”

The strikes came after the Israeli military said its air force intercepted a missile fired from Yemen before it entered the country.

A military official said the waves of strikes on Yemen early Thursday were not a direct response to the missile strike, but rather a planned response to months of Houthi aggression. Israeli fighter jets were already in the air when the missile was fired.

US forces have also launched a series of strikes on the Houthis over nearly a year over Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea passage.

On Monday, the US military's Central Command said it had struck a "key command and control facility" run by the Houthis in Sanaa, which was later identified as the Al-Ardi compound that was formerly the headquarters of the government's Defense Ministry.

But Israel appears to have carried out Thursday’s strikes alone. A U.S. military official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the attacks, said Washington had no role in them.

While the United States has carried out strikes on the Houthis in the past, it is also balancing Saudi Arabia's desires for a permanent ceasefire in its stalled war with the Houthi rebels.

Iran main arena

According to Al-Monitor, Israel views the Houthi drones and missiles, most of which have been intercepted, as nuisance attacks or harassment on the fringes of the main arena, Iran.

Some in Israel even view the three retaliatory strikes on Yemen as a “pilot project” in preparation for a possible attack on Iran, which is equidistant from Iran.

“The Iranians are responsible for the Houthi activity, as well as for the fact that they imposed a naval blockade on Israel and harmed trade through the Red Sea,” a senior Israeli diplomatic source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity.

"There is no reason why Iran cannot withstand blows from Israel. The era in which Iran strangled Israel through its proxies, and in which Israel limited itself in its responses to these proxies, is over," he added.

The American website pointed out that, after Israel had practically crushed Iran's allies "in Lebanon and Gaza - Hezbollah and Hamas respectively - "and thus contributed to the collapse of the pro-Iranian government of President Bashar al-Assad in Syria, Israel now sees an opportunity to complete the transformation in the Middle East by toppling the Iranian regime.

For the past quarter century, Israeli politicians and experts have debated how best to counter Iran’s nuclear ambitions and regional hegemony. While many have called for military strikes, others have argued that toppling the clerical regime would have the same effect of thwarting the country’s nuclear drive.

This debate continues, but last week Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued an appeal to the Iranian people, expressing his hope that they would one day be freed from the mullahs.

Speaking in English with Persian subtitles, Netanyahu said Iranian leaders “spent more than $30 billion propping up [Bashar] Assad in Syria” before “his government collapsed.”

“Your oppressors have spent more than $20 billion to support Hezbollah in Lebanon. Within weeks, most of Hezbollah’s leaders, missiles, and thousands of terrorists were gone,” he added.

At the same time, Israel has invested enormous resources, energy, and ingenuity in an attempt to thwart Iran’s nuclear program. And so far, it has succeeded. Iran is not yet a designated nuclear power, but it remains a threshold state or a state on the threshold of that limit.

But now a growing number of military experts in Israel believe that the solution lies not in launching a military attack on Iran's nuclear sites, but in undermining the regime.

In this regard, Israel is pinning great hopes on receiving assistance from US President-elect Donald Trump. Israel has been in contact with Trump’s transition team to discuss the possibility of the US imposing unprecedented sanctions on Iran, while Israel is supposed to inflict direct damage on infrastructure and government sites.

When Al-Monitor asked about discussions on this issue and the possibility of destabilizing and toppling the regime in Tehran, a senior Israeli military official, speaking on condition of anonymity, replied, “That’s true. And if we can, we will try to help that happen.”

Israeli analysts believe that the popularity of the Iranian government has now reached its lowest levels since the Islamic Revolution that brought it to power in 1979.

“Iran has been hit very hard, and the Iranian public knows it. The Iranian public feels it in their pockets and in their standard of living,” a senior Israeli political source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. He noted that Iran has lost Syria, its most valuable asset, and that Hezbollah is bleeding on the ground.

“In Iran, the Iranians are now busy exchanging accusations and making efforts to fortify the regime in preparation for a possible wave of riots on the home front,” said the senior Israeli political source. “It seems as if we need another push to hasten the end of the Islamic Revolution.”

Hostage deal before Trump's inauguration?

Sources close to Netanyahu say he wants to reach a deal on the hostages held by Hamas in Gaza before January 20, to “clear the table” and start relations with the Trump administration on the right foot.

According to them, the prime minister is very hopeful that the normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia will also mature in the coming weeks. Both the outgoing Biden administration and the incoming Trump administration are heavily invested in reaching a deal with Hamas that would free dozens of hostages, including seven Americans.

Trump has already appointed a special envoy for hostages, Adam Boehler, while Biden’s envoys continue intensive efforts and talks in the region to reach an agreement. Boehler was in Israel this week, where he met with Netanyahu and other senior officials.

After that, according to Israeli sources, he left for Saudi Arabia, apparently following in the footsteps of the Biden administration to promote a peace agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

The Israeli officials Boehler met stressed the importance of dealing with Iran. He was optimistic and made several proposals on Gaza and Saudi Arabia, perhaps ignoring the fact that moments of optimism in the Middle East are often followed by a wave of pessimism and disappointment.